How Long Will The Bitcoin Bear Market Last? CryptoQuant Research Chief Predicts

Overview

The ongoing Bitcoin drawdown below a significant price threshold has reignited discussions among market participants regarding the duration of the current bear market. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, expressed concerns about the state of the market during an appearance on The Milk Road Show, highlighting indicators that suggest the bottoming process may take an extended period.

Current Market Conditions

As Bitcoin continues its downward trajectory, Julio Moreno emphasized that the prevailing indicators signal a persistent weakness in demand and liquidity. He noted that CryptoQuant’s “Bull Score Index,” which aggregates various metrics related to on-chain valuation, liquidity conditions, and market data, has remained in a bearish range. Specifically, the index has been hovering between zero and ten for an extended period, indicating a lack of positive momentum in the market.

Moreno’s analysis pointed to the rapid shift in the Bull Score Index observed in October, when a liquidation event led to a swift transition from bullish to bearish readings. This volatility suggests that the index can serve as an early-warning mechanism, alerting traders to potential price corrections before they occur.

He characterized the current market sentiment bluntly, stating that Bitcoin is “well in bear market,” with data failing to support any significant price reversal. This assessment aligns with the observed decline in demand from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to Moreno, these ETFs transitioned into net selling during the fourth quarter and have continued to exert downward pressure into early 2026. In contrast, the previous year saw a notable increase in purchases.

Moreno also highlighted the Coinbase premium—an indicator of U.S. demand—indicating that it turned negative in November and has remained so for most of the subsequent period. Historically, a strong U.S. demand has been a catalyst for bull markets, and the current persistent discount suggests that this demand has not returned, even after the recent price drop.

Stablecoin liquidity was another area of concern for Moreno, who pointed out that the market capitalization of USDT has stalled since mid-October. He explained that new stablecoin issuance typically flows into exchanges, providing liquidity for traders, and the lack of growth in this area further complicates the current market conditions.

Additionally, CryptoQuant’s longer-term Bitcoin demand growth model is currently near zero year-over-year, indicating a stagnation in demand growth since October. This slowdown is critical as it helps explain the ongoing downward pressure on prices despite attempts to establish a market bottom.

From author

Moreno’s insights provide a comprehensive look at the underlying factors contributing to the current bear market in Bitcoin. By analyzing key indicators such as the Bull Score Index, ETF flows, and stablecoin liquidity, he outlines a scenario where the market may require a significant period to recover from its current state. This analysis is crucial for traders and investors who must navigate a landscape characterized by uncertainty and volatility.

Impact on the crypto market

• The persistent bearish indicators suggest that a recovery in Bitcoin prices may not be imminent.
• The shift of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs into net selling represents a significant factor weighing on market sentiment.
• The negative Coinbase premium indicates a lack of robust demand from U.S. investors, historically a driver of bull markets.
• Stagnation in stablecoin liquidity could hinder market-wide trading activity and limit potential price recoveries.
• The current demand growth model hovering near zero signals a challenging environment for any sustained upward momentum in Bitcoin prices.