Bitcoin Not “Pumpable” Right Now, Says CryptoQuant Founder: Here’s Why

Overview

The founder of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, has provided insights into the current state of Bitcoin, stating that the cryptocurrency is not “pumpable” at this moment. This assertion is based on the observed divergence between Bitcoin’s Market Cap and Realized Cap, which highlights significant shifts in market dynamics over recent months.

Bitcoin Market Cap vs. Realized Cap

In a recent post on X, Ki Young Ju elaborated on the contrasting trends between Bitcoin’s Market Cap and Realized Cap over the past year. The Market Cap represents the total value of Bitcoin’s supply at its current spot price, while the Realized Cap offers a different perspective by calculating Bitcoin’s total valuation based on the price at which each coin was last transacted on the blockchain. This method provides a more nuanced view of Bitcoin’s value, reflecting the total investment made by all Bitcoin holders.

The Realized Cap essentially signifies the amount that Bitcoin investors have collectively put into the cryptocurrency, whereas the Market Cap indicates the value they currently hold. Typically, changes in the Realized Cap, which can be viewed as capital inflows or outflows, lead to corresponding changes in the Market Cap.

Young Ju pointed out that the growth rate difference between the Bitcoin Market Cap and Realized Cap was positive in mid-2025, indicating that the Market Cap was increasing at a faster rate than the Realized Cap. However, this trend reversed in the last quarter of 2025, resulting in a negative reading as the market experienced a crash. The first quarter of 2026 has seen this metric decline even further, coinciding with ongoing price drops in the cryptocurrency.

The analyst emphasized that the selling pressure in the market is currently too significant for any potential multiplier effect to take hold. He noted that in 2024, a $10 billion increase in the Realized Cap could lead to a $26 billion increase in the Market Cap. In contrast, during 2025, a substantial $308 billion flowed into Bitcoin, yet the Market Cap decreased by $98 billion, underscoring the current market’s challenges.

Insights from the CryptoQuant Community

In addition to Young Ju’s analysis, there are reports of “New Whales” on the Bitcoin network experiencing capitulation. These New Whales are defined as investors who entered the market within the past 155 days and hold more than 1,000 BTC. Amid recent price declines, this group has faced significant losses, including a notable loss-taking spike of $1.46 billion.

From author

The current divergence between Bitcoin’s Market Cap and Realized Cap serves as a critical indicator of market health and investor sentiment. The challenges highlighted by Ki Young Ju reflect broader trends that could potentially impact future investment strategies within the cryptocurrency space. Understanding these dynamics is essential for investors looking to navigate the complexities of the Bitcoin market.

Impact on the crypto market

• The divergence between Market Cap and Realized Cap indicates investor sentiment is currently negative.
• Heavy selling pressure suggests that upward price movements may be limited in the near term.
• The capitulation of New Whales could lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin’s price as these investors adjust their positions.
• The contrasting trends between 2024 and 2025 highlight changing market dynamics and investor behavior.
• The data presented may influence future investment decisions and strategies among crypto investors.