Bitcoin HODLer Selloff Ending? LTH Outflows Decline

Overview

Recent on-chain data indicates a decline in long-term holder (LTH) outflows of Bitcoin, suggesting that the selling pressure from these investors may be diminishing. This trend could have significant implications for market dynamics and overall investor sentiment in the cryptocurrency space.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Outflows Decline

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted a notable trend regarding Bitcoin long-term holders, defined as investors who have maintained their positions for over 155 days. The recent data reveals that the netflow of these long-term holders is becoming less negative, which could imply a reduction in the selling pressure that has characterized previous market phases.

Historically, long-term holders are viewed as the steadfast participants in the Bitcoin market, often resistant to selling their assets. However, they have exhibited phases of distribution—periods where they sell off portions of their holdings—over the past few years. For instance, during the bull rallies of 2024, long-term holders engaged in profit-taking, resulting in streaks of net outflows. A brief distribution phase was also noted in mid-2025, indicating that these holders were realizing profits once again.

The most recent phase of distribution, which is still ongoing, has been unique. Unlike past selloffs that coincided with price increases, this current distribution is occurring in a bearish market environment. Despite the ongoing net outflows from long-term holders, the intensity of these outflows has been decreasing recently. This trend suggests that the market is absorbing a significant amount of long-held Bitcoin supply, which may indicate a shift in market dynamics.

Accompanying this decline in net outflows is a drop in the Realized Profit for long-term holders. Realized Profit is a metric that measures the total profit realized through transactions by this cohort. Recent data shows that while profit-taking was elevated earlier, it has now fallen to lower levels. Such conditions are often associated with increased uncertainty in the market and may emerge during pauses in mid-bull markets or at the onset of deeper bear markets.

From author

The observations from Glassnode provide a critical insight into the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders amidst fluctuating market conditions. The decrease in outflows and the corresponding decline in realized profits suggests a potential recalibration of investor sentiment. As long-term holders adjust their strategies, it is important to monitor how these changes may influence market stability and investor confidence moving forward.

Impact on the crypto market

• A decline in long-term holder outflows may indicate reduced selling pressure in the Bitcoin market.
• The decrease in realized profits among long-term holders could reflect a broader sense of uncertainty among investors.
• The ongoing distribution phase, despite bearish market conditions, may signal a shift in market dynamics and investor behavior.
• The absorption of long-held supply might contribute to future price stability or recovery, depending on market conditions.
• Monitoring long-term holder behavior will be essential for understanding potential market trends and investor sentiment in the coming weeks.