Here’s How Much % Of Bitcoin Supply Is Currently Sitting In Losses

Overview

On-chain analytics platform Glassnode has provided insights into the current state of Bitcoin supply, revealing that a significant portion is sitting at a loss. This analysis arrives as Bitcoin’s price continues to struggle below a critical psychological level following a recent crash.

Current Bitcoin Supply at a Loss

According to Glassnode, the total amount of Bitcoin currently in a loss stands at 6.7 million BTC. This figure represents the highest level of loss-bearing supply recorded in this current market cycle. Specifically, this loss-bearing supply accounts for 23.7% of the circulating Bitcoin supply. The analytics platform breaks down the distribution of this loss-bearing supply, noting that 10.2% is held by long-term holders, while 13.5% is in the hands of short-term holders.

This distribution pattern suggests that, similar to previous market cycles, the supply accumulated by more recent buyers is transitioning into the long-term holder category as the market matures. Glassnode highlights that the 6-7 million BTC range has been at a loss since mid-November, mirroring early phases of prior cycles where rising investor frustration preceded deeper bearish conditions and capitulation at lower Bitcoin prices.

The current crash has brought Bitcoin’s price down to levels not seen since 2024, effectively erasing year-to-date gains. Glassnode emphasizes that this situation has created a dense supply cluster from top buyers who accumulated Bitcoin in the $93,000 to $120,000 range. The resulting supply distribution indicates a top-heavy market structure, where any recovery attempts are likely to encounter substantial overhead sell pressure, particularly in the early stages of a bearish trend.

Furthermore, Glassnode asserts that as long as Bitcoin’s price remains below this critical range and fails to reclaim significant thresholds—most notably the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $101,500—the potential for further price declines remains.

Bitcoin Spot Demand Dynamics

In addition to the supply analysis, Glassnode has also examined the dynamics of Bitcoin’s spot market. The platform reveals that Bitcoin spot market flows exhibit an uneven demand profile across major exchanges. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) bias indicates sporadic buy-side activity, but this has not translated into sustained accumulation, particularly amid recent price pullbacks.

Notably, the CVD on Coinbase appears relatively constructive, pointing to more consistent participation from U.S.-based investors. In contrast, Binance and aggregate Bitcoin flows show erratic and directionless behavior. This disparity indicates selective engagement rather than a coordinated demand for Bitcoin.

Despite recent price declines, Glassnode notes that there has not been a significant increase in positive CVD, suggesting that dip-buying activity remains tactical and short-term in nature. Without a sustained accumulation across various trading venues, Bitcoin’s price trajectory seems increasingly reliant on derivatives market activity and liquidity conditions, rather than organic demand from spot markets.

From author

The current landscape of Bitcoin supply and demand underscores the challenges facing the cryptocurrency as it navigates through a bearish phase. The data from Glassnode paints a picture of a market grappling with significant overhead resistance and investor uncertainty.

Impact on the crypto market

• A substantial portion of Bitcoin supply is currently held at a loss, indicating widespread investor strain.
• The high level of loss-bearing supply may lead to increased selling pressure as investors seek to cut losses.
• The uneven demand profile highlights the lack of coordinated buying activity, which could hinder recovery efforts.
• The reliance on derivatives and liquidity conditions for price movement suggests a volatile environment.
• The presence of a top-heavy market structure may complicate any potential price recovery in the near term.