Bitcoin’s Cost Base Resets As New Whales Take The Lead

Overview

Recent on-chain data indicates that Bitcoin is entering a new phase of market participation, characterized by significant shifts in its cost base due to the activity of new large investors, often referred to as “whales.” This evolution is noteworthy as it suggests a potentially more stable foundation for Bitcoin’s value, influenced by substantial buying activity from larger market players.

New Whales and Cost Base Dynamics

According to data from CryptoQuant, addresses identified as new whales now represent nearly half of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization. Historically, before 2025, this segment rarely exceeded 22%. The realized cap reflects the value of Bitcoin based on the price at which each coin last moved, providing insight into how and where capital has entered the network. This significant increase in the share of new whales indicates a shift in the network’s cost base, suggesting that the aggregate capital invested in Bitcoin is being re-anchored at higher price levels.

Reports indicate that the share of realized cap from new whales has continued to grow, even during market pullbacks. This resilience suggests that these large players are committed to holding their assets, which can contribute to a more stable price framework for Bitcoin.

Short-Term Demand and Market Activity

In addition to the rise of new whale addresses, there has been a notable surge in short-term holder supply, which expanded by approximately 100,000 BTC over a 30-day period, reaching an all-time high. Such an increase in supply among short-term holders indicates heightened demand at the near-term level.

Analysis of exchange flows reveals that around 37% of Bitcoin sent to Binance originated from whale-sized wallets, classified as those holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC. Furthermore, reports from Hyblock show that the cumulative volume delta for whale wallets, defined as those with balances ranging from $100,000 to $10 million, recorded a positive delta of $135 million this week. In contrast, retail wallets, which hold between $0 and $10,000, and mid-size traders, holding between $10,000 and $100,000, experienced negative deltas of $84 million and $172 million, respectively. This trend highlights that larger players are absorbing selling pressure, while smaller holders are reducing their exposure to Bitcoin.

Market Volatility and Derivatives

In terms of market reactions, Bitcoin’s price demonstrated notable volatility, rising from $85,100 to $88,000 in a mere five hours following a rate hike by the Bank of Japan. This event was closely monitored by investors as a potential macroeconomic trigger. Interestingly, open interest in derivatives increased at a faster pace than the price of Bitcoin, with funding rates turning positive. This shift indicates that new margin-driven long positions are being added, rather than merely covering existing short positions. Such patterns in market flows can heighten the likelihood of volatile reversals, particularly if market sentiment shifts, despite the apparent health of spot demand.

From author

The current market dynamics surrounding Bitcoin reflect a significant transformation in ownership and investment behavior. The influx of new whales and the corresponding changes in realized cap suggest a more robust and potentially less volatile market structure. However, the interplay between large and small investors, combined with the influence of derivatives, introduces complexities that could lead to unpredictable price movements.

Impact on the crypto market

• The increase in new whale participation may lead to a more stable price foundation for Bitcoin.
• Short-term holder supply reaching an all-time high indicates strong demand, potentially supporting price levels.
• Larger investors absorbing selling pressure could mitigate volatility in the market.
• The trend of positive deltas among whale wallets contrasts sharply with the negative deltas seen in retail and mid-size wallets, reflecting a shift in market dynamics.
• The increase in derivatives open interest may lead to heightened volatility, depending on shifts in market sentiment.