Who’s Selling Bitcoin? Fidelity Research Boss Breaks It Down

Overview

Recent observations in the Bitcoin market have raised questions about the source of ongoing selling pressure despite visible buying from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) and corporate entities. Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, has noted that long-term holders, often referred to as HODLers, appear to be the primary sellers influencing Bitcoin’s price dynamics.

Market Dynamics and Seller Insights

Chris Kuiper highlighted the persistent query among traders: “Who is selling?” This question arises amid a backdrop of significant buying activity. Kuiper indicated that the answer lies with long-term holders, who are not moving their assets, thereby exerting selling pressure on the market.

Using an on-chain metric, Kuiper referenced the “Percent of Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago,” which tends to rise during bear markets as long-term holders retain their coins, often experiencing unrealized losses. This metric typically declines sharply during bull markets when these investors sell into market strength.

Currently, Kuiper observed that the slope of the decline in long-term holder supply during this cycle has been relatively gentle compared to previous cycles. Unlike past instances where the share of coins last active over a year dropped dramatically during price spikes, the current trend shows a consistent, slow decrease. This behavior suggests that long-term holders are not exiting the market with the same urgency, contributing to a prolonged period of price stagnation.

Kuiper noted that Bitcoin’s performance has recently lagged behind other assets, such as gold and the S&P, leading to investor fatigue. Many long-term holders anticipated a strong market performance in October and November, which did not materialize, prompting them to consider year-end tax and positional adjustments.

On-chain analyst Julio Moreno from CryptoQuant provided additional insights by analyzing the “1-year inactive supply drawdown” in terms of total Bitcoin supply. He quantified the drawdowns from previous cycles, highlighting that the current decline is comparable to the 2021 cycle, albeit at a slower pace. This indicates that while long-term holders have released a significant amount of supply, the market has absorbed this change over a more extended period rather than through abrupt profit-taking.

Impact on the Crypto Market

• The ongoing selling pressure from long-term holders could affect Bitcoin’s price stability.
• The slow decline in inactive supply suggests a shift in market sentiment among long-term investors.
• Investor fatigue due to underperformance relative to other assets may lead to further selling.
• The current market dynamics differ significantly from previous cycles, indicating a potential change in trading behavior.
• Monitoring the slope of long-term holder supply will be crucial in assessing future market movements.

Updated: 11/14/2025, 3:17:22 AM