Bitcoin Price Has Not Reached Its Real Bottom, And A ‘Big Storm’ Is Coming

Overview

Recent analyses in the cryptocurrency market indicate that Bitcoin has not yet reached its real price bottom, contrary to some bullish sentiments. A crypto analyst has provided a bearish outlook, suggesting that further declines are imminent before any sustainable recovery can occur.

Current Market Analysis

According to a crypto expert known as Marmot, Bitcoin’s price action continues to reflect patterns similar to those observed during the 2022 bear market. Marmot argues that the leading cryptocurrency has not yet established its true price floor and warns that it may crash below $45,000 before any meaningful upward movement happens. This perspective contrasts with the views of some market participants who believe Bitcoin has already found its bottom.

Marmot’s analysis highlights that Bitcoin has fallen more than 40% from its all-time high, which was above $126,000 in October 2025. Since reaching this peak, Bitcoin has experienced a downward trend, punctuated by what Marmot refers to as “fake recoveries.” These temporary price increases tend to attract investors, only for the market to reverse sharply, leading to significant losses.

To substantiate his bearish outlook, Marmot has categorized Bitcoin’s current bear market into three distinct phases. The first phase concluded with a decline exceeding 54%, leaving Bitcoin trading above $74,000. Currently, Marmot asserts that the market is in the second phase of the bear cycle, characterized by repeated bull traps and volatility designed to eliminate short-term investors.

For instance, following the announcement of a ceasefire between the US and Iran, Bitcoin briefly surged above $73,000, only to quickly reverse toward $71,000 before stabilizing above $74,000 once again. Marmot suggests that as bear traps continue to eliminate shorts and long positions get ensnared in bull traps, Bitcoin is likely entering the final phase of this bear market. He believes this stage is where Bitcoin is most likely to find its true bottom.

From author

Marmot’s analysis provides a detailed examination of Bitcoin’s current market behavior and its potential trajectory. By comparing the current cycle to past bear markets, he highlights the cyclical nature of cryptocurrency price movements. Understanding these phases can help investors better navigate the volatile landscape of digital assets. The notion of bull and bear traps, along with the cyclical patterns, serves as a reminder of the inherent risks associated with trading cryptocurrencies.

Impact on the crypto market

• The ongoing bearish sentiment may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin prices, affecting investor confidence.
• If Bitcoin does drop below $45,000, it could trigger further sell-offs, impacting the broader cryptocurrency market.
• The concept of bull and bear traps highlights the need for cautious trading strategies among short-term investors.
• Continued declines may lead to a reevaluation of investment strategies by market participants, prompting a shift towards more conservative approaches.
• The potential for a significant crash could deter new investors from entering the market, slowing down overall market growth.