Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index At COVID- And LUNA-Crash Low — What’s Next?

Overview

Bitcoin’s recent performance has drawn attention amid ongoing global financial uncertainty. As the cryptocurrency attempts to breach the $74,000 resistance level, investor sentiment appears to be declining, with the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index hitting a significant low not seen in nearly four years.

Bitcoin’s Price Performance

Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dynamics have been noteworthy, particularly as it approached the $74,000 resistance level. However, this level has proven difficult to surpass, leading to a fresh rejection as the weekend approached. The overall atmosphere in the Bitcoin market is becoming increasingly pessimistic, suggesting that bullish momentum is fading. Recent data indicates that the investor sentiment related to Bitcoin has deteriorated, with the market now reflecting a level of fear reminiscent of previous significant downturns.

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index

According to a post shared on the X platform by a crypto analyst, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has been on a downward trajectory for several weeks. This index serves as an on-chain indicator to gauge market sentiment and investor behavior. Typically, the index operates on a scale from 0 to 100, with higher values indicating extreme greed and lower values signaling extreme fear among investors.

Currently, the 30-day average of the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 10%. This level of pessimism is comparable to conditions observed during market-wide crashes, including those triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and the collapse of the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem. The index had previously peaked above the 75th percentile in late 2025, demonstrating a significant shift in investor sentiment.

The analyst noted that the current sentiment is “deeply compressed,” suggesting that for the market structure to stabilize, Bitcoin may need to reclaim higher price levels. While improving price performance could enhance market sentiment, the current index level may provide insights into Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.

Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to recover when market sentiment reaches such lows. For example, during the COVID-19 crash, Bitcoin rebounded from approximately $5,000 to establish a new all-time high after the Fear and Greed Index fell to around 10%. However, in 2022, Bitcoin’s price did not reach a bottom until after the collapse of the FTX exchange, which occurred several months after the index also hit the 10% mark. This historical context implies that the current low reading of the Fear and Greed Index may suggest that Bitcoin is either at or near its bottom.

From author

The current state of the Bitcoin market is marked by significant anxiety among investors, as reflected in the Fear and Greed Index. The challenges in overcoming resistance levels, combined with the historical context of market reactions to similar sentiment levels, paint a complex picture for Bitcoin’s future trajectory. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors looking to navigate the current landscape.

Impact on the crypto market

• The decline in the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index suggests heightened investor skepticism, which could deter new investments.
• A prolonged period of low sentiment may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin’s price as investors react to market conditions.
• Historical trends indicate that low sentiment levels may precede price recoveries, but this is not guaranteed.
• The inability to breach key resistance levels may signal a bearish outlook for the broader cryptocurrency market.
• Market participants may closely monitor Bitcoin’s price movements and sentiment indicators for potential recovery signals.