XRP Just Hit A Level That Previously Sparked 15%–40% Surges: Analyst

Overview

XRP has recently experienced a significant decline, leading traders to speculate about whether the worst is over for the token. Having lost approximately half its value since an opening price in October, XRP’s momentum indicators have also shown sharp changes, prompting traders to pay close attention to market signals.

Recent Price Movements

Since the fourth quarter of 2025, XRP’s price has steadily decreased from around $2.80 to approximately $1.42. This drop has raised concerns among traders, especially as the daily relative strength index (RSI) fell to about 17 on February 5, 2026. This level is notable for being the lowest seen in over a decade, indicating extreme oversold conditions. Historical data suggests that such low RSI levels have often preceded strong and rapid rebounds in price.

Historical Patterns

Market reports indicate that previous instances of low RSI readings have coincided with notable recoveries. For example, after an October low, XRP experienced a bounce of nearly 70% within a short time frame. Other significant lows in mid-2024 and April 2024 resulted in gains of about 65% and 35%, respectively. These rapid increases were typically driven by buyers stepping in when momentum appeared to be exhausted. However, it is crucial to note that past performance does not guarantee future results, and subsequent selling pressure has often followed initial rebounds.

Recently, XRP reached an RSI of 20 on the daily chart, marking it as the most oversold level in its history. Historical data shows that every time XRP has hit such extreme RSI levels, a bounce of 15% to 40% occurred within two weeks. This consistent pattern has garnered attention from some market commentators, including a crypto researcher who highlighted the potential for a relief bounce.

Market Commentary

Certain traders are closely monitoring the potential for a short squeeze or a flush that could shake out weak hands. However, caution is advised as relying solely on one signal may not be sufficient. The overall market conditions, macroeconomic news, and the behavior of larger funds can significantly influence price movements, potentially overshadowing technical indicators.

The presence of large short-liquidity zones above $2.25 and between $4.20 and $4.40 suggests that if XRP’s price reaches these levels, accelerated movements could occur. Despite XRP’s struggles, its performance relative to other major cryptocurrencies has shown some resilience, particularly in its trading pairs with Ethereum and Bitcoin.

From author

While XRP’s current situation presents a mix of opportunity and risk, traders must remain vigilant. The interplay of technical indicators, market sentiment, and broader economic factors will play a crucial role in determining the token’s trajectory. As traders evaluate their strategies, a balanced approach that considers both potential upside and structural selling pressures may be advisable.

Impact on the crypto market

• XRP’s price decline reflects broader market weaknesses but shows some relative strength in its trading pairs.
• Low RSI levels may signal potential for short-term recoveries, attracting traders looking for quick gains.
• Historical patterns suggest that rebounds are possible, yet renewed selling could follow any initial recovery.
• The presence of significant liquidity zones indicates potential volatility if certain price levels are breached.
• Market dynamics, including macroeconomic news and fund behaviors, could overshadow technical signals, adding complexity to trading decisions.