This Analyst Called The Bitcoin Price Crash 4 Months Ago, But There’s More

Overview

A prominent crypto analyst previously forecasted a significant downturn for Bitcoin, indicating a precise timeframe for this potential crash. As price movements begin to align with this forecast, the analyst has released an extensive update that not only reinforces the original prediction but also outlines the anticipated developments before and after a major turning point.

Bitcoin Price Multi-Cycle Model Signals A Structural Reset

In an update shared on X, the analyst discusses the integration of yearly, monthly, and weekly cycles to assess the possible magnitude of decline and the timing of the next pivotal moment for Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin is positioned in what the analyst describes as an extreme risk zone on the yearly timeframe, with a projected pivot anticipated around February 2. This structural setup is characterized as left-translated with distributive price action, indicating a correlation with late-cycle weaknesses.

The analyst draws parallels between the current market conditions and a previous harmonic phase, during which Bitcoin experienced a decline of approximately 50% from its all-time high before reaching a similar pivot window. This prior downturn was followed by a rebound of around 40%, although it failed to achieve a new all-time high. This historical context suggests that the upcoming February pivot may offer some relief but may not lead to significant expansion.

Additionally, the analyst identifies a macro risk window extending from April to September 2026, indicating potential vulnerabilities in the market during that period.

On the monthly cycle, a critical pivot is marked for December 22. Historical drawdowns in similar harmonics have varied significantly, with past declines of 56%, 77%, and 34%, contingent on the cycle’s context. Notably, the 77% drop occurred during a bear market, while the 34% retracement took place within a mid-bull cycle. The analyst notes that the subsequent rebounds from these drawdowns ranged from 140% to 375%, highlighting the potential for substantial price movements during monthly harmonics.

On a more immediate weekly timeframe, a nearer-term pivot is anticipated around November 19. Historical pullbacks in this timeframe have ranged from 20% to 34%, followed by notable upside expansions, providing tactical signals for traders to consider short-term adjustments within the broader trend.

From author

The insights shared by the analyst underscore the complexity of Bitcoin’s price behavior and the importance of monitoring various cycles to navigate potential market shifts. By aligning the yearly, monthly, and weekly cycles, a clearer picture emerges of the possible future trajectory of Bitcoin, emphasizing the need for caution amid the anticipated volatility.

Impact on the crypto market

• The analyst’s update reinforces the notion of a significant downturn, which could influence trader sentiment and market dynamics.
• The identification of key pivot dates may lead traders to adjust their strategies in anticipation of potential price movements.
• Historical parallels drawn by the analyst could prompt investors to reconsider their positions based on past performance during similar harmonics.
• The outlined macro risk window may heighten awareness of longer-term vulnerabilities, affecting investment decisions.
• The potential for a multi-stage recovery could shape future market trends, influencing both short-term and long-term strategies for investors.