Glassnode: XRP Is Back In Its 2021-2022 Playbook As SOPR Drops Sub 1

Overview

Recent analysis by Glassnode indicates that XRP is exhibiting a concerning trend as it has fallen below its aggregate holder cost basis. This development has historically been associated with market capitulation and significant loss realization among investors, leading to a prolonged period of stabilization rather than a quick recovery.

Current Situation and Its Importance

According to a post by Glassnode, XRP’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has dropped below 1, which signifies that market participants are spending coins at a loss on average. This decline in SOPR, which has moved from a value of 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96 currently, suggests that holders are realizing substantial losses. The analytics firm noted that this trend has triggered a wave of panic selling among investors.

The implications of a SOPR below 1 are significant. Typically, such a situation indicates that sellers are compelled to exit their positions, while buyers entering the market are often those with longer investment horizons. Glassnode pointed out that this current scenario mirrors a previous cycle for XRP that occurred between September 2021 and May 2022, when the SOPR also fell below 1 and resulted in prolonged consolidation before stabilization.

In early February, Glassnode reiterated that the XRP Realized Price was trading at $1.48, further emphasizing the similarity of the current market structure to that of April 2022. Earlier in January, the firm had already noted a resemblance to the market conditions of February 2022. This pattern indicates a tension between newer buyers who are accumulating XRP below the cost basis of long-held supply and the psychological pressure that builds on top buyers as the situation persists.

Market Reactions

Some market participants interpret the current SOPR regime as a process of transferring XRP supply from weaker hands to stronger ones. One commentary highlighted that this could be seen as a classic capitulation signal, suggesting that weak hands are exiting at a loss, which may set the stage for a more durable price base. Another respondent drew parallels to Bitcoin’s historical forced-selling episodes, reinforcing Glassnode’s historical comparisons.

If Glassnode’s analysis proves accurate, the focus may shift from immediate price movements to how long XRP remains in a loss-realization phase. The potential for stabilization would depend on whether profitability metrics cease to decline, allowing the SOPR to reclaim the break-even line.

From Author

The current state of XRP presents an intriguing scenario for both investors and analysts. With its SOPR falling below 1, the market sentiment appears to lean towards caution, yet there are voices suggesting this could be a necessary phase for building a stronger foundation. The historical context provided by Glassnode adds depth to the analysis, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of current market dynamics.

Impact on the Crypto Market

• The drop in XRP’s SOPR below 1 indicates a period of loss realization among holders, which can lead to increased volatility.
• Historical patterns suggest that such conditions could precede a stabilization phase, but the timeline remains uncertain.
• Market sentiment may shift as some investors view this as an opportunity for accumulation, potentially leading to a transfer of supply from weaker to stronger hands.
• Psychological pressures on top buyers may influence future market movements, affecting overall investor behavior.
• Continued monitoring of profitability metrics will be crucial to determine if XRP can break free from its current loss-realization regime.