Expert Predicts Bitcoin Price Could Fall To $45,000 By End Of 2026

Overview

Bitcoin (BTC) has officially entered a bear market, experiencing a significant decline from its all-time high. A crypto market expert has provided insights into potential future price movements, emphasizing the importance of timing in market cycles.

Current Market Situation

Bitcoin has experienced a 50% decline from its all-time high, dropping to its lowest level since October 2024. The leading cryptocurrency fell as low as $60,000, which has fueled discussions regarding how much further the price could decrease before reaching a long-term bottom. As the market continues to search for direction, expert NoLimit has shared a framework to analyze Bitcoin’s potential future movements.

NoLimit’s analysis suggests that historical patterns from previous Bitcoin bear markets are crucial in predicting future price behavior. He notes that the duration from all-time highs to cycle lows in past bear markets has shown a consistent pattern. For instance, after the first Halving cycle in 2012, Bitcoin hit its bottom after 406 days. The second Halving cycle in 2016 saw a bottom after 363 days, and the third cycle, which followed the 2020 Halving, bottomed after 376 days.

According to NoLimit, the current cycle, which follows the 2024 Halving, has not yet completed this pattern. Based on these historical intervals, he posits that there is a high statistical likelihood Bitcoin may reach its next major capitulation point between October and November 2026.

NUPL Analysis

In addition to historical patterns, NoLimit discusses an on-chain indicator known as Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). This institutional-grade indicator has historically signaled when Bitcoin has reached generational lows. Specifically, when NUPL enters what is termed the “blue zone,” it has previously indicated significant market bottoms.

The NUPL signal was effective in identifying the bottom during the 2018 bear market, the COVID-19 market crash, and the low in 2022. Notably, NoLimit indicates that Bitcoin has not yet entered this blue zone in the current cycle and is still some distance away from it.

Taking all these factors into consideration, NoLimit expresses that he would not be surprised to see Bitcoin trading within a range that he refers to as his ultimate bottom target, between $45,000 and $50,000, by the end of 2026.

From author

The analysis provided by NoLimit highlights the importance of both price and timing in understanding Bitcoin’s market cycles. By examining historical trends and utilizing on-chain indicators like NUPL, market participants may gain insights into potential future movements. This comprehensive approach could help investors make more informed decisions as they navigate the complexities of the cryptocurrency market.

Impact on the crypto market

• Bitcoin’s entry into a bear market may influence investor sentiment, potentially leading to increased caution among traders.
• The historical patterns outlined by NoLimit could serve as a guide for investors looking to time their entries and exits in the market.
• As Bitcoin approaches the predicted timeframe for a potential capitulation, market volatility may increase.
• The NUPL indicator’s significance could prompt more institutional investors to analyze on-chain data when making decisions.
• The discussion surrounding Bitcoin’s price range could impact altcoin performance as traders reassess their portfolios.