Bitcoin NUPL Back In Hope/Fear Region: What Happens Next?

Overview

Recent on-chain data reveals a notable decline in Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), a key indicator reflecting the unrealized gains and losses of investors. This shift in the NUPL metric has raised questions about the current sentiment among Bitcoin investors and its potential implications for the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin NUPL Drops to 0.18

According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the Bitcoin NUPL has recently fallen to the 0.18 level. The NUPL serves as a comparative measure of unrealized profit and loss held by investors on the Bitcoin blockchain. It assesses the transaction history of each token to determine the previous selling price and compares it to the current spot price. When the prior selling price exceeds the current price, the token is classified as having unrealized profit. Conversely, if the current price is lower, the token is considered to be underwater.

The NUPL metric aggregates the profit and loss data across the network, subtracting the total losses from the total profits to ascertain the net situation for Bitcoin. This value is then normalized against the market cap to provide a clearer picture of the overall investor sentiment regarding unrealized gains and losses.

Glassnode’s analysis indicates that when Bitcoin’s NUPL surged above the 0.5 level during the rallies of 2024 and 2025, investors were holding net profits exceeding half of the cryptocurrency’s market cap. However, this exuberance was followed by price declines that saw the NUPL retreat into a range between 0.25 and 0.5. While Bitcoin managed to recover from the initial two downturns, the latest decline has led to a more extended downtrend, bringing the NUPL down to 0.18.

This current level suggests that while unrealized profits still exist within the network, they are considerably diminished compared to previous highs. The 0.18 threshold falls within a zone that Glassnode defines as indicative of “hope/fear” among investors. The analytics firm notes that this regime is typically reactive, where upward rallies meet selling pressure, and downward movements can persist as investor conviction wanes.

Historically, the last significant drop in Bitcoin’s NUPL occurred during the 2022 bear market, ultimately leading the cryptocurrency into an “extreme fear” state, characterized by net losses among the majority of investors.

From author

The decline in Bitcoin’s NUPL to the 0.18 level is a significant development that could reflect shifting investor sentiment. This metric not only highlights the current state of unrealized profits and losses but also serves as a barometer for market psychology. The “hope/fear” zone suggests that investors may be uncertain about future price movements, which could lead to increased volatility in the market. Observing how long Bitcoin remains in this zone and whether it can recover will be crucial for assessing the outlook for the cryptocurrency.

Impact on the crypto market

• The drop in Bitcoin’s NUPL to 0.18 indicates a shift in investor sentiment, moving towards uncertainty.
• The “hope/fear” region may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin’s price as investors react to market changes.
• Historical patterns suggest that significant declines in NUPL can precede further downturns, as seen in the 2022 bear market.
• The current state of unrealized profits being thinner may deter new investments and trigger profit-taking among existing holders.
• Monitoring the NUPL trend will be essential for gauging market confidence and potential recovery phases.