Bitcoin Big-Money Exits: Large-Holder Supply Hits Lowest Since May 2025

Overview

Recent on-chain data indicates a notable shift in Bitcoin ownership dynamics, with large holders distributing their assets at a rate not seen in several months. This trend highlights the contrasting behaviors of retail investors versus larger market participants in the wake of a significant price drawdown.

Large Holder Supply Decrease

According to on-chain analytics from Santiment, there has been a significant decline in the supply share held by large Bitcoin holders, defined as those possessing between 10 and 10,000 BTC. This cohort has seen their percentage of the total circulating Bitcoin supply drop to its lowest level since May 2025. In contrast, small retail investors, classified as those holding between 0 and 0.01 BTC, have been actively accumulating Bitcoin, increasing their holdings by 2.5% since the price peak in October. This accumulation has brought their supply share to the highest point since June 2024.

The data indicates a stark divergence in behavior between these two groups. While retail investors have continued to buy into Bitcoin even amid price declines, large holders have engaged in selling during the market’s downturn from October to December. Notably, there was a brief period in January where these larger investors made some purchases, which coincided with a reduction in retail holdings. However, this was followed by another sell-off towards the end of January, which was described as sharper than any distribution phase observed in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Despite Bitcoin’s recent recovery from a low of $60,000, large holders have not demonstrated a return of bullish sentiment. Their supply is down by 0.8% compared to the peak experienced in October, further emphasizing the cautious stance taken by significant market players.

From author

The behavior of Bitcoin’s various investor cohorts offers valuable insights into current market sentiment. The contrasting actions of retail versus large holders suggest a complex market environment where smaller investors are more optimistic or perhaps less affected by recent price volatility. This divergence might indicate a potential struggle for upward momentum in Bitcoin’s price, as the lack of support from large investors could limit any significant rally.

The mid-tier holders, defined as those with balances between 0.01 and 1 BTC, have also been noteworthy. Their combined Bitcoin supply has reached a 15-month high, reflecting a 1.05% increase since October. Conversely, holders with between 1 and 10 BTC have reduced their holdings by 0.49% during the same period. These movements further illustrate the shifting landscape of Bitcoin ownership.

Impact on the crypto market

• The decrease in supply held by large holders may signal reduced confidence in Bitcoin’s short-term price trajectory.
• Retail investors’ accumulation could indicate a belief in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, despite recent volatility.
• The contrasting behaviors of different investor segments may lead to increased market fragmentation, impacting price stability.
• The lack of large capital support from major holders could hinder substantial price rallies.
• The growth in mid-tier holder supply might suggest a shift in investor demographics, potentially influencing future market trends.