XRP Market Structure Resembles That Of February 2022, Glassnode Warns

Overview

Glassnode has observed that the market structure of XRP is reverting to a configuration reminiscent of February 2022. This shift indicates that newer buyers are accumulating XRP at levels that put previous holders at a disadvantage, which may influence selling pressure around critical price levels.

Current Market Structure

According to Glassnode, the current market dynamics for XRP are similar to those seen in February 2022. The analytics firm shared insights indicating that there has been a notable rotation in realized prices among different age bands of XRP holders. Specifically, wallets that have been active in the short-term, roughly defined as those holding for 1 week to 1 month, are acquiring XRP at prices below the cost basis of those who have held for 6 to 12 months.

This situation implies that newer demand is entering the market at lower price points than many mid-term holders, who may be feeling the strain as their positions are now underwater. The disparity between the cost bases of different holding periods suggests that when the market price returns to these levels, it can create sell pressure as holders seek to break even on their investments. Glassnode pointed out that as time passes, psychological pressure builds on those who bought at higher prices, which can lead to increased selling activity.

The firm visualized this phenomenon through their “Realized Price by Age” chart, which showcases the difference between the realized prices of shorter-term holders and those holding XRP for 6 to 12 months. This chart highlights the gap that has emerged during the latest consolidation phase, reinforcing the comparison to the market structure from February 2022.

Psychological Impact of Price Levels

Currently, XRP is trading slightly below the $2 mark, a significant psychological level for many holders. Glassnode referenced historical data suggesting that since early 2025, retests of the $2 price point have resulted in substantial losses, estimated between $0.5 billion and $1.2 billion per week. This pattern indicates that the $2 mark is not merely a technical level but also a behavioral threshold where holders may alter their spending decisions, potentially leading to capitulation or forced selling.

The historical context further illustrates how price dynamics can shift quickly. In February 2022, XRP experienced a sharp decline, followed by a rapid increase and subsequent downturn, coinciding with broader macroeconomic risks. This past behavior serves as a reminder of how external events can influence the crypto market and individual asset price movements.

From Author

The current market structure for XRP, as highlighted by Glassnode, presents a complex interplay between short-term and mid-term holders. The observed accumulation by newer buyers at lower prices against the backdrop of psychological pressure on previous holders could lead to significant market movements. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for market participants as they navigate potential volatility.

Impact on the Crypto Market

• The divergence in cost bases among XRP holders may lead to increased selling pressure as holders attempt to recover losses.
• Psychological levels, such as the $2 mark, could influence trading behaviors and market sentiment.
• The historical context of market reactions to macroeconomic events may provide insights into future price movements.
• Increased volatility could arise from the tension between newer and older holders as the market adjusts to these dynamics.
• The observed patterns in XRP may reflect broader trends across the crypto market, influencing investor strategies and decision-making processes.