Bitcoin To $30,000? Analysts Warn BTC Crash Could Be Deeper Than Expected

Overview

Bitcoin has recently experienced volatility, attempting to stabilize near the $82,000-$83,000 range after a notable decline. Analysts are cautioning that the cryptocurrency must maintain crucial support levels to avoid confirming a bearish trend, highlighting the potential for a deeper correction.

Recent Price Movements

Bitcoin, having bounced 2.6% from recent lows, is trying to establish the $82,000-$83,000 area as a support zone. However, some analysts warn that if Bitcoin fails to hold these macro support levels, it may signal a “confirm bearish acceleration.”

On Thursday, Bitcoin faced a significant downturn, dropping nearly 9% to the $81,314 area. Prior to this crash, Bitcoin had been trading within the $86,000-$93,500 range since early November, managing to close above the lower boundary of this two-month range. Despite this, Bitcoin has lost a key support level on the daily timeframe, raising concerns about a further decline unless it can recover the $86,000 mark before the week concludes.

Market observers note that Bitcoin has fallen below its 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a critical support indicator. An analyst pointed out that the last two instances where Bitcoin closed below the 100-week EMA, in 2018 and 2022, resulted in a 50% drop within 4-6 weeks. This historical pattern suggests a potential for a significant decline as Bitcoin is currently hovering at levels reminiscent of the late November correction.

The analyst also highlighted an eight-year ascending trendline that has historically marked the tops of previous cycles. This trendline, which began during the late 2017 peak, continued into the next bull market and marked the 2021 cycle top as well. During the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin retraced 83.11% from this trendline, while the 2022 pullback saw a 77.57% decline. The current situation indicates that Bitcoin may be close to topping around this trendline again, with the potential to retrace up to 76.88% towards a significantly lower price point in the future.

Technical Analysis

Another analyst, Rekt Capital, shared insights on Bitcoin’s recent pullback, noting its breakdown from the weekly price range and approach toward the $82,500 bottom of its Macro Triangle formation. According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has been forming a triangle pattern in the monthly timeframe since mid-2024, resembling the triangle formation that preceded the previous bear market in 2021.

The analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s price action is closely mirroring its performance from 2021 to 2022, with the cryptocurrency respecting both macro support and descending resistance. A breakdown from the macro triangle bottom would further confirm bearish acceleration, while a bullish market continuation would require Bitcoin to break and hold above the macro descending resistance on longer timeframes.

Rekt Capital also pointed out that Bitcoin is displaying a similar Bull Market EMA crossover that occurred in the early stages of the last bear market. While this imminent crossover does not necessarily predict further downside, it does indicate ongoing weakness in the market. The analyst emphasized that if Bitcoin continues to create macro lower highs due to weakening demand at historical support levels, the outlook may lean more bearish than bullish.

From author

Bitcoin’s current situation is a critical juncture for its price trajectory. The historical patterns and technical indicators presented by analysts suggest that the cryptocurrency is at risk of significant declines if it fails to regain its lost support levels. The focus now shifts to how Bitcoin will respond in the coming days, particularly in relation to its historical performance and the broader market sentiment.

Impact on the crypto market

• Analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s ability to maintain crucial support levels, which could influence market sentiment.
• The potential for a deeper correction raises concerns for investors and may lead to increased volatility across the crypto market.
• Historical trends suggest that significant price drops could occur if Bitcoin fails to recover key levels.
• The formation of a Macro Triangle indicates critical resistance and support levels that could dictate future price movements.
• Ongoing bearish signals may influence investor confidence and trading strategies, potentially impacting overall market dynamics.