Bitcoin Could Be Setting Up A Comeback Vs. Gold, Analyst Suggests

Overview

A veteran market analyst has identified a technical pattern that may indicate a potential turnaround for Bitcoin after a prolonged period of underperformance compared to gold. This development arises as traders evaluate the implications of gold’s sustained gains on Bitcoin’s narrative as a safe-haven asset.

Bitcoin Versus Gold Ratio Decline

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has experienced a significant decline, dropping from 32 on October 5 to approximately 20 recently, marking a decrease of over 37%. This decline signifies that one Bitcoin, which could purchase around 32 ounces of gold in early October, now only buys about 20 ounces. The ratio’s decrease has accelerated alongside gold’s price rally and Bitcoin’s fall below crucial price levels.

Recent daily readings suggest a possible shift in momentum. On November 21, the BTC/gold pair reached a low of 20, with the relative strength index (RSI) recorded at 21.30. Following this, a lower low was noted near December 1, accompanied by a higher RSI low of 26.83. Another trough at 19 on December 26 coincided with a higher RSI low of 32.21. This pattern is identified as a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe for Bitcoin compared to gold.

Technical Signals Indicating Potential Reversal

According to reports, the analyst Michaël van de Poppe characterized this pattern as a “strong” bullish divergence on the daily chart. Such setups are closely monitored by traders as they can indicate a reduction in selling pressure, even when prices are registering new lows.

The analysis extends to the weekly chart, where the RSI for the BTC/gold pair has fallen to approximately 31.85. This level was previously observed during the November 2022 sell-off linked to the FTX collapse, which marked a bottom in that market cycle. Similar RSI lows have historically been associated with market bottoms seen in 2015 and 2018. Collectively, the daily divergence and the low weekly RSI strengthen the argument that the ongoing downtrend may be losing momentum, although no outcomes can be guaranteed.

Market Sentiment and Diverging Views

The market sentiment presents a divided perspective among investors. Gold has experienced a remarkable rally, reportedly surging over 70% in 2025, while Bitcoin has faced a decline of 7% in the same timeframe. As of now, Bitcoin trades at $87,750, reflecting a 4.8% decrease year-to-date. The deterioration of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, coupled with Bitcoin’s continued struggle below the $100,000 mark, has led to fresh skepticism regarding Bitcoin’s status as “digital gold,” especially as gold achieves historic gains.

In the short term, market participants appear to favor gold as a means of capital protection, viewing it as a safe haven while it ascends to new highs. In contrast, long-term holders of Bitcoin continue to emphasize its potential for significant upside once market risk appetite returns.

From Author

The current divergence in the performance of Bitcoin and gold highlights the evolving narrative surrounding Bitcoin’s role in the market. As the technical indicators suggest a possible turnaround, it remains crucial for traders and investors to monitor the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio closely. The interplay between these two assets will likely shape market sentiment and investment strategies moving forward.

Impact on the Crypto Market

• The declining Bitcoin-to-gold ratio raises questions about Bitcoin’s effectiveness as a safe-haven asset.
• The bullish divergence signals on the daily chart may attract traders looking for potential reversals.
• Market sentiment appears split, with short-term investors favoring gold while long-term Bitcoin holders maintain optimism.
• An improvement in the BTC/gold ratio could reinvigorate interest in Bitcoin as a viable investment option.
• Continued underperformance relative to gold may compel Bitcoin advocates to reassess its narrative in the current market landscape.