Bitcoin Bulls Take Control: Futures Positioning Turns Bullish for First Time Since October

Overview

Bitcoin has recently surged above the $95,000 mark, as selling pressure in the market continues to diminish. This shift offers a renewed sense of short-term stability after a period of erratic price movements. The gradual improvement in price action signals that buyers are regaining control, moving Bitcoin back into a previously established resistance range.

Current Market Dynamics

The resurgence in Bitcoin’s price is notable, particularly following a volatile conclusion to the previous year. Despite ongoing skepticism among analysts who caution against a potential broader corrective phase, recent data from derivatives and market positioning indicates a possible shift in market behavior.

Axel Adler shared an analysis highlighting that Bitcoin’s Positioning Index SMA-30d has risen to 3.5, marking the first sustained breakout above the 3.0 level since October 6, 2025. This previous breakout coincided with a rally that pushed Bitcoin towards a peak of $125,000, making the current situation significant when viewed through a historical lens.

The Positioning Index reflects the aggregated dynamics of the futures market, including open interest, funding behavior, and long-short activity. It serves as an indicator for identifying changes in trader sentiment. The recent uptick in the Positioning Index suggests that futures traders are shifting from a defensive posture to a more directional approach after months of cautious positioning. Although Bitcoin is currently holding above the $95,000 mark, the upcoming sessions will be pivotal in determining if this movement evolves into a broader trend or remains a temporary relief rally.

Futures Positioning Signals a Shift Toward a Bullish Regime

The recent breakout of the Positioning Index SMA-30d above the 3.0 level indicates a local shift in Bitcoin’s futures market structure. After nearly three months of fluctuating within the 0 ± 2 range, this movement implies that traders are transitioning to a more aggressive stance. Axel Adler emphasizes that confirmation of this trend now relies on sustained performance rather than rapid changes. A critical aspect for continuation is for the SMA to remain above the 2.0 level for at least one week, which would validate that the shift is not merely a fleeting reaction.

Supporting this view, developments in the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index have been observed. While sentiment peaked at 93.15% when Bitcoin was trading near $95,061, it has since cooled to approximately 70%. This decline occurred without a corresponding breakdown in price structure, as the index remains significantly above the neutral threshold of 50% and above its 30-day average of 62.9%. Adler interprets the decline in sentiment as a necessary release of short-term overheating rather than a reversal of trend. Historically, such resets often enhance the durability of trends.

Bitcoin Price Action Details

Recent price action on the daily chart indicates a concerted effort to regain control following a lengthy consolidation period. After a sharp sell-off in November that saw Bitcoin drop into the low $80,000 range, the price has gradually formed a structure of higher lows, indicating stabilization rather than ongoing capitulation. The recent rise above $95,000 represents the highest daily close since mid-November, positioning Bitcoin back above its short-term moving average, which had previously capped upside throughout December.

Despite this positive movement, the broader trend remains mixed. The 50-day moving average is still trending downward and resides above the current price, acting as a near-term dynamic resistance. Conversely, the 200-day moving average is trending higher well below the current price, confirming that the overall market structure remains intact despite recent volatility. The current positioning suggests a transition from corrective pressure towards a potential recovery phase, rather than a straightforward trend reversal.

The recent advance towards the $95,000 level occurred without a notable spike in trading volume, indicating reduced selling pressure rather than a surge in new demand. This aligns with a relief-driven movement characterized by short covering and position rebalancing. For bullish sentiment to remain intact, it is crucial for Bitcoin to maintain its position above the $93,000 to $95,000 range. Failure to do so could raise the risk of returning to range-bound trading or a pullback towards the $90,000 support level.

From author

The current market dynamics surrounding Bitcoin’s price suggest a potential turning point. Analysts and traders alike will be watching closely to see if the recent bullish sentiment can sustain itself in the coming days. The interplay between futures positioning and market sentiment will be critical in shaping the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price action.

Impact on the crypto market

• Bitcoin’s recent price action indicates a potential shift from a corrective phase to a recovery phase.
• The Positioning Index SMA-30d breakout suggests traders are becoming more willing to take directional risks.
• Sustained sentiment above the neutral threshold could support further upside.
• The current price levels are critical for maintaining bullish momentum and avoiding a return to a range-bound market.
• The lack of significant volume during the recent price increase indicates a cautious market environment.