Why XRP Price Is Playing Catch-Up Despite Successful ETF Launch: Analyst

Overview

The XRP price has faced challenges in maintaining bullish momentum throughout 2025, particularly following its all-time high. Despite the launch of spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, the expected increase in demand has not materialized, leading to ongoing bearish pressure on the asset.

XRP Price Struggles Despite ETF Launch

After reaching an all-time high of $3.65 in July 2025, XRP has experienced a downward trend. The launch of spot XRP ETFs was anticipated to alleviate some of this downward pressure by generating increased demand for XRP. However, on-chain analysis indicates that the ETFs have not succeeded in reducing bearish sentiment surrounding the asset.

According to insights from the CryptoQuant platform, a pseudonymous analyst identified as PelinayPA attributes the ongoing decline in XRP’s price to the activities of a specific group of XRP whales. These whales have reportedly been a significant factor in the steady decrease in price. The analyst highlighted data from the Exchange Inflow – Value Bands chart, which categorizes the amount of XRP flowing into centralized exchanges by different investor cohorts over time.

Recent data reveals that the majority of inflows are concentrated in the 100K-1M XRP and 1M+ XRP bands. PelinayPA noted that each significant inflow spike has been followed by the formation of a lower high and lower low in price, indicating that supply is outpacing demand. This situation arises from the absence of strong new buyers in the market. Although whales have not been aggressively selling, the constant increase in supply has been exerting downward pressure on the price.

The analyst suggested that the first major support zone for XRP lies between $1.82 and $1.87, an area historically associated with significant buying activity. However, if whale inflows continue to rise, the price could potentially drop to the $1.50 to $1.60 range. Such large transfers to centralized exchanges are often interpreted as signals of forthcoming selling pressure.

Whales Offload Holdings During ETF Launch

Historically, the launch of ETFs for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum has led to increased institutional demand, pushing prices higher. In contrast, the introduction of XRP ETFs has not had the same effect, with the price currently down nearly 50% from its all-time high. Market data indicates that the US-based spot XRP ETFs have not experienced a single day of negative outflows since their trading began.

Interestingly, PelinayPA posited that the steady decline in XRP’s price may be linked to whales offloading their holdings on exchanges as expectations around the ETF heightened. This selling activity has created liquidity for retail investors looking to capitalize on the news of the ETF launch. The analyst observed that the XRP price encounters selling pressure each time it approaches the $1.95 level, suggesting that a reduction in exchange inflows is necessary for a potential bullish trend.

As of the latest information, the price of XRP is approximately $1.90, reflecting a slight increase of over 3% in the past 24 hours.

From author

The current dynamics surrounding XRP illustrate the complex interplay between whale activities and market sentiment. The anticipated bullish impact of the ETF launch has not materialized, leading to an ongoing struggle for XRP to regain its earlier highs. Observations from analysts indicate that without a shift in the inflow patterns from whales, XRP may continue to face significant challenges in establishing a bullish trend.

Impact on the crypto market

• The XRP price has not capitalized on the launch of ETFs, indicating potential weaknesses in demand.
• Whale activity continues to play a critical role in shaping XRP’s price trajectory.
• Market sentiment remains bearish, with significant selling pressure evident each time XRP nears certain price levels.
• The lack of negative outflow days for XRP ETFs suggests persistent interest, but this has not translated into price appreciation.
• Analysts highlight the need for a change in inflow dynamics to foster a bullish outlook for XRP.