This Subwave Says Bitcoin Price Is Headed For A 50% Crash To $42,000
Overview
Crypto analyst Tony Severino has identified a historical bearish pattern that may lead to a significant drop in Bitcoin’s price, potentially reaching as low as $42,000. This outlook emerges despite a recent rebound for Bitcoin, which has surged above the psychological $90,000 level.
Bitcoin Price Predictions
Bearish Pattern Identified
Severino noted that Bitcoin tends to retrace to subwave 3/4 of wave 3/4 of its impulse. He indicated that this could result in a crash to approximately $42,000 during wave C of the anticipated downward movement. His analysis suggests that this decline may occur early next year.
Current Market Context
The bearish sentiment comes amid Bitcoin’s recovery above the $90,000 mark, coinciding with the end of quantitative tightening (QT) by the U.S. Federal Reserve. There is also optimism surrounding a potential rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with data indicating a high likelihood of this occurring.
Diverging Opinions
Despite the macroeconomic factors that might be viewed as positive for Bitcoin, analysts, including Severino, have suggested that Bitcoin is currently in a bear market, with expectations of a downward trend in the coming months. Severino pointed out a subtle volume breakout on the monthly chart, which he interpreted as a confirmation of a trendline breakdown.
Market technician JT critiqued the notion that the end of QT is bullish for Bitcoin, labeling it a “fallacy.” He mentioned that potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could further stress liquidity in the market.
Additional Predictions
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also weighed in on the situation, forecasting that Bitcoin could drop to the mid-$40,000 range. He highlighted that the upper boundary of a lower support zone starts below $70,000, while the lower support boundary is positioned in the mid-$40,000s. Brandt has a history of making predictions regarding Bitcoin’s price movements, previously suggesting a drop to around $50,000 before a potential rally to $200,000 in the next bull market.
Historical Context
Brandt noted that in all previous bull market cycles, a violation of the dominant parabolic advance has been followed by corrections exceeding 75%. He anticipates that Bitcoin will undergo another significant correction in the current cycle, possibly dropping below $50,000.
Impact on the crypto market
- Analysts are predicting significant downward movements for Bitcoin, with potential price targets as low as $42,000.
- The end of quantitative tightening may not be sufficient to counteract bearish trends in the market.
- Diverging opinions among analysts highlight the uncertainty in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
- Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin may undergo substantial corrections following trendline violations.
- Current market conditions, including potential rate changes by central banks, could further influence Bitcoin’s price movements.
Updated: 12/3/2025, 2:26:39 PM
