Standard Chartered Cuts 2026 Bitcoin Price Prediction By 50%

Overview

Standard Chartered has significantly revised its Bitcoin price predictions, reducing its 2026 target by 50%. This adjustment reflects a shift in the bank’s analysis regarding the factors influencing Bitcoin’s price, particularly in light of recent market dynamics driven by exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While the bank remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term potential, it acknowledges that its previous projections were overly ambitious.

Standard Chartered Downgrades Bitcoin Price Predictions

In a recent communication shared by Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck, Standard Chartered highlighted a fundamental change in its outlook for Bitcoin. The bank has cut its 2026 price target from $300,000 to $150,000, aligning with a broader reevaluation of market conditions. Standard Chartered noted that the traditional halving cycle of Bitcoin, previously viewed as a key price driver, has been overshadowed by the influence of ETF-related buying activity.

The bank stated that the dynamics observed in previous halving cycles—where prices typically peaked approximately 18 months post-halving—are no longer applicable. This shift suggests that the anticipated price movements driven by halving events are being replaced by the impact of institutional investment through ETFs. Standard Chartered emphasized that a break of the current all-time high would be necessary to validate this new perspective and stated expectations for such a breakout in the first half of 2026.

In conjunction with this revised outlook for 2026, Standard Chartered has also adjusted its multi-year Bitcoin targets for the coming years. The forecasts have been lowered across the board: the 2025 target has been revised from $200,000 to $100,000, the 2027 target from $400,000 to $225,000, and the 2028 estimate from $500,000 to $300,000. The bank retains a long-term target of $500,000 for 2030, indicating continued confidence in Bitcoin’s future potential.

Geoff Kendrick, the head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, characterized the recent downturn in Bitcoin’s price as painful but not indicative of a structural crisis. He described the current market conditions as a “cold breeze,” distancing the situation from the concept of a new crypto winter. Kendrick noted that the current price adjustments are consistent with historical corrections seen during previous bull markets. However, he pointed out that the reduced valuations of publicly listed Bitcoin treasury companies have limited their capacity to act as significant buyers, placing ETFs as the primary influence on short-term price movements.

From author

The revisions made by Standard Chartered reflect a notable shift in the understanding of Bitcoin’s market dynamics. By recognizing the diminishing relevance of the halving cycle and the growing importance of institutional investment through ETFs, the bank is adapting to a rapidly evolving landscape. This analysis underscores the complexities of the cryptocurrency market, where traditional indicators may no longer apply as they once did.

Impact on the crypto market

• The reduction in Bitcoin price targets by Standard Chartered signals a broader reevaluation of market expectations.
• The emphasis on ETF-driven flows suggests that institutional investment may play a more significant role in price movements going forward.
• The acknowledgment of a painful but non-structural correction may alleviate fears of a prolonged downturn in the market.
• The convergence of views between Standard Chartered and Bernstein indicates a shift in consensus among major financial institutions regarding Bitcoin’s future trajectory.
• Investors may need to adjust their strategies in light of these new insights, focusing more on institutional behavior rather than traditional halving cycles.