Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Top Analyst Assigns 91.5% Probability
Overview
Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher has made a significant assertion regarding Bitcoin, claiming a 91.5% probability that the cryptocurrency has reached its bottom. This bold statement, shared in a social media thread, is supported by a systematic analysis of various market factors.
Analysis of Deutscher’s Findings
Deutscher’s confidence in Bitcoin’s bottom being in is founded on four key pillars:
1. Market Reaction to News
Deutscher observes that Bitcoin has recently responded positively to a wave of negative news, including concerns surrounding Tether, regulatory scrutiny of MicroStrategy, and fears related to a potential Bank of Japan-driven yen carry trade unwind. He emphasizes that this is the first instance since the major selloff began where Bitcoin has rallied despite adverse news, suggesting a shift in market sentiment.
2. Historical Behavior of FUD Events
The second pillar involves a historical examination of how previous FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) events have coincided with local market lows. Deutscher states that his backtesting indicates that similar FUD events have consistently marked local bottoms for Bitcoin. He categorizes these events as significant indicators that, when combined with market reactions, strengthen the bullish case.
3. Changes in Market Flows
The third pillar focuses on market flows, which Deutscher describes as critical to understanding net buying and selling pressure. He notes that while there had been aggressive selling from significant holders and ETFs, recent trends show signs of stabilization and even upticks in ETF inflows. This shift in flow dynamics contributes positively to his overall assessment.
4. Improving Liquidity and Macro Environment
The final pillar considers the broader liquidity and macroeconomic environment. Deutscher points out that market liquidity has been tightening but is now showing signs of improvement, with global financial conditions easing. He also mentions the anticipation of a potentially more dovish Federal Reserve chair and the conclusion of quantitative tightening, which may provide additional support for the market.
Deutscher combines these four pillars to arrive at his conclusion of a 91.5% probability that Bitcoin’s low is already established. However, he also acknowledges several caveats, including the potential need for US markets to cool off and the ongoing risks associated with market dynamics.
Impact on the Crypto Market
- A strong probability assertion could influence trader sentiment and market behavior.
- Positive market reactions to negative news may indicate resilience among investors.
- Historical patterns of FUD events marking local bottoms may lead to increased buying interest.
- Changes in market flows could signal a potential reversal in Bitcoin’s price trend.
- Improved liquidity and macro conditions may create a more favorable environment for price recovery.
Updated: 12/5/2025, 9:22:01 PM
