Bitcoin Signals Bear Market: One Thing Could Flip It, Says CryptoQuant CEO

Overview

Bitcoin’s potential descent into a new bear market is a concern highlighted by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. He emphasizes the importance of fresh macro liquidity, particularly through spot ETFs, as a crucial factor in reversing the current trend.

Current Market Analysis

Ki Young Ju shared insights on Bitcoin’s market indicators through a composite on-chain dashboard that overlays Bitcoin’s price movements. He indicated that most Bitcoin on-chain indicators currently signal bearish trends. Ju noted that without an influx of macro liquidity, the market may enter a bear cycle.

The composite chart he presented includes several key metrics, such as the MVRV Z-score, CryptoQuant P&L Index, Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator, Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse, Network Activity Index, Stablecoin Liquidity, Bitcoin Demand Growth, Trader On-chain Profit Margin, Trader Realized Price, and a Technical Signal metric. The visual representation uses a red-to-green heatmap to illustrate the market’s condition over time, with red indicating bearish sentiment.

As Bitcoin’s price has recently declined from its highs, the chart reflects a dominance of red indicators, reinforcing Ju’s warning about the bearish outlook. He argues that the future movements of Bitcoin are more dependent on macroeconomic conditions and ETF flows than on on-chain data alone. Ju pointed out that new ETF inflows could play a pivotal role in sustaining Bitcoin’s price. Historically, rising ETF inflows have been associated with significant price increases, while declining flows have corresponded with the loss of upward momentum.

Ju advocates for a flexible approach to trading in the current environment, suggesting that investors should be reactive rather than predictive. The composite chart serves as a tool for scenario management, illustrating how past market cycles have aligned with persistent bearish indicators.

Despite the bearish sentiment, Ju does not anticipate a repeat of the drastic decline seen in 2022, where Bitcoin experienced a significant drop from its peak. He highlighted the behavior of the Michael Saylor-led Strategy as a stabilizing influence. Ju believes that if this strategy maintains its substantial Bitcoin holdings, it could mitigate the risk of another sharp downturn.

While acknowledging the current pullback as significant, he views it as less extreme in a historical context. Ju noted that Bitcoin is currently around 25% below its all-time high and suggested that if a bear cycle does occur, it may resemble a prolonged sideways range rather than a dramatic crash. His advice to long-term investors is to avoid panic selling, as he believes that the structural backdrop for Bitcoin has improved, with more liquidity channels now available.

Impact on the crypto market

• Bitcoin’s current bearish indicators suggest potential challenges ahead for the cryptocurrency market.
• The reliance on macro liquidity and ETF inflows highlights the interconnectedness of traditional finance and cryptocurrency.
• Ju’s insights suggest a cautious approach for investors, emphasizing the need for scenario management.
• The possibility of a less severe bear market compared to previous cycles may provide reassurance to long-term holders.
• The structural improvements in Bitcoin’s liquidity channels indicate a potentially stronger long-term outlook for the asset.

Updated: 12/5/2025, 1:52:06 AM