Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Face Prolonged Pain As Key Metric Stays Red

Overview

Bitcoin has been struggling in the fourth quarter of 2025, prompting many investors to reduce their holdings. Short-term holders (STHs) have been particularly affected, facing significant challenges as a key market metric indicates prolonged losses.

Current Market Conditions for Short-Term Holders

As Bitcoin continues to underperform, short-term holders are experiencing considerable pressure. According to market quant Burak Kesmeci, the STH MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metric has shown a concerning trend. This metric is crucial as it compares the market value of Bitcoin to its realized value, allowing for an assessment of whether short-term investors are generally making a profit or incurring losses.

Currently, the STH MVRV has remained in deep red territory for 60 consecutive days. A reading below the neutral level of 1 suggests that short-term holders are, on average, facing losses. This sustained negative reading is significant because it often correlates with increased market stress and could signal potential capitulation events among this investor group.

Kesmeci emphasized that the short-term holders are undergoing one of the most challenging periods of patience they have faced in 2025. When such prolonged negative MVRV readings occur, they can lead to sell-offs driven by capitulation, where investors may quickly liquidate their holdings to cut losses. Conversely, if bearish pressure diminishes, these negative readings could also indicate a possible stabilization in the market.

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Below the 111-Day SMA

In addition to the concerning MVRV metrics, Kesmeci highlighted a key technical observation regarding Bitcoin’s price action. Bitcoin has been trading below its 111-day simple moving average (SMA) for the same duration as the negative MVRV readings. This technical alignment suggests that Bitcoin may be in a consolidatory or corrective phase, contradicting any notions that it might be poised for a significant upward trend.

The current market scenario raises questions regarding Bitcoin’s future trajectory. Various macroeconomic factors and renewed demand for spot Bitcoin could play a critical role in determining whether the cryptocurrency will see further declines or begin a recovery. At the time of writing, Bitcoin remains valued at around $87,380, with no significant movement noted in the past day.

From author

The current state of Bitcoin reflects a challenging environment for short-term holders. The sustained negative MVRV readings indicate a broader market sentiment that could lead to significant volatility. Investors and analysts alike will be watching closely to see how these dynamics unfold and what potential implications they may have for Bitcoin’s price movement.

Impact on the crypto market

• Prolonged negative MVRV readings may signal increased selling pressure from short-term holders.
• The current trading position below the 111-day SMA suggests a lack of upward momentum for Bitcoin.
• Market conditions could lead to capitulation events, further affecting investor sentiment.
• The potential for stabilization exists if bearish pressure decreases, but uncertainty remains.
• Macro factors and renewed demand could influence Bitcoin’s future price trajectory, making it a critical time for market participants.