Bitcoin Mirrors Q1 2025 Playbook, Is It Headed To $70,000 Before Year’s End?

Overview

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently struggled to maintain momentum, failing to reclaim a critical resistance level for the second time this week. As market volatility persists, some analysts predict that the cryptocurrency may face a disappointing end-of-year rally, with potential for new lows before recovery.

Current Market Situation

This week, Bitcoin attempted to break past a significant resistance level after experiencing a 2.9% surge from its daily opening. However, the cryptocurrency has not been able to reclaim the $89,000-$90,000 range since an early week correction that saw its price drop to a two-week low of $85,145. The flagship crypto has retested this crucial resistance area twice in the last 24 hours but has been rejected each time, resulting in a return to local lows.

Market observer Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin has managed to hold above the $85,000 support zone despite the ongoing volatility. If this support holds, it could lead to another attempt at the key $90,000-$92,000 zone. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks below the local support zone, a retest of the November lows, around the $80,000 mark, may occur.

Pillows also pointed out that Bitcoin might be mirroring its price action from Q1 2025. He indicated that a drop below the recent lows could be on the horizon, as historical patterns suggest BTC briefly bounced in March 2025 from an early correction before recording a lower low. This was followed by recovery rallies in Q2 and Q3 that drove the price to a new all-time high (ATH) of $126,000. Presently, Bitcoin is recovering from an initial corrective phase, and if the past is an indicator, a potential drop of 10%-15% to the $74,000-$76,000 area could occur in the coming weeks before a rally toward new highs in 2026.

In a similar vein, analyst Ali Martinez stated that Bitcoin is at a crucial inflection point, with a risk of dropping up to 20% if the $87,000 support does not hold. He explained that Bitcoin is breaking out of a bear flag, which could target the $70,000 level if selling pressure increases.

Another analyst, Daan Crypto Trades, observed that Bitcoin has been trading within a range of $84,000-$93,500 for the past four weeks, exhibiting choppy movements. He anticipates that the next few weeks will continue to lack direction due to lower liquidity and trading volume during the holiday season, suggesting that traders might benefit from logging off and returning in early January.

On a more optimistic note, analyst Crypto Jelle mentioned that despite the low-timeframe struggles, Bitcoin “still flat out refuses to drop lower,” maintaining a position on a clear weekly support level that has held since April. He emphasized that as long as this area remains intact, there is potential for price recovery toward the monthly opening around $90,300.

From author

The current landscape for Bitcoin reflects a complex interplay of resistance and support levels, with analysts providing varying perspectives on the future trajectory of the cryptocurrency. The emphasis on historical patterns suggests that traders and investors should remain cautious while closely monitoring price movements. The differing opinions among analysts underscore the uncertainty in the market, as BTC grapples with significant volatility.

Impact on the crypto market

• Bitcoin’s inability to hold key resistance levels may signal broader market uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment.
• Potential drops to the $70,000 or $76,000 levels could create further market volatility and trigger reactions from traders.
• The period of low liquidity during the holiday season may exacerbate price swings and contribute to choppy market conditions.
• Analysts’ differing views on Bitcoin’s near-term direction highlight the unpredictability of the market, which may lead to cautious trading strategies.
• The ongoing struggle for Bitcoin to maintain support levels could influence the performance of other cryptocurrencies, as market trends often correlate across the crypto space.