Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Dump Is Over: On-Chain Data Just Flipped

Overview

Recent analysis of Bitcoin’s long-term holder activity suggests a significant shift in market dynamics. Long-term holders, defined as those who have held their Bitcoin for over six months, have reportedly ceased net selling, which may alleviate some of the structural supply pressure as we approach 2026. This change is underscored by a positive shift in long-term holder supply data.

The Shift in Long-Term Holder Activity

According to on-chain analysts, Bitcoin’s long-term holder cohort has transitioned from a phase of net selling to one of accumulation. This shift is particularly important as it may reduce the selling pressure that has characterized the market for several months. The analysis by Darkfost indicates that the supply change for long-term holders, which had been negative for an extended period, has now become modestly positive.

Darkfost emphasized that previous claims regarding long-term holders selling more than ever do not accurately reflect the underlying data. He noted that large movements of Bitcoin from exchanges, particularly around 800,000 BTC from Coinbase, had distorted the interpretation of long-term holder activity. By isolating these movements, Darkfost revealed a clearer picture of the supply change among long-term holders.

For much of the latter half of 2025, the share of Bitcoin held by long-term holders had been declining, which typically corresponds with increased selling pressure as older coins enter the market. However, this trend appears to be reversing. Darkfost pointed out that since July 16, the monthly supply change for long-term holders had been stable before recently shifting into positive territory. Approximately 10,700 BTC have transitioned back into long-term held status, marking a noteworthy, albeit modest, change in behavior.

This shift indicates that long-term holders are reducing their selling activity, leading to an increase in their overall holdings. In contrast, short-term holders continue to maintain their positions, suggesting a divergence in market sentiment between these two groups.

Other analysts, including CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju and VanEck’s head of digital research Matthew Sigel, have echoed this sentiment. Ju succinctly stated that long-term holders have ceased selling, while Sigel highlighted the significance of this transition as it alleviates a major source of selling pressure that has persisted since 2019.

From author

The recent change in long-term holder behavior could signify a pivotal moment for Bitcoin. The cessation of net selling among this cohort may provide a more stable foundation for price movements in the future. While the current data does not guarantee a specific outcome, the historical context suggests that similar shifts have often led to consolidation phases or potential bullish recoveries. Observing how this trend evolves in conjunction with broader market conditions will be crucial for understanding its implications.

Impact on the crypto market

• The cessation of net selling by long-term holders may reduce selling pressure on Bitcoin.
• A modest increase in long-term holdings could signal a potential shift towards accumulation.
• Historical patterns suggest that such changes often precede consolidation phases or recoveries.
• Divergence in behavior between long-term and short-term holders may influence market sentiment.
• Analysts are closely monitoring these trends for indications of future market movements.