Bitcoin Could Be Sub-$50,000 By 2028 Without Quantum Fix, Warns Capriole Founder

Overview

The founder of Capriole Investments has raised significant concerns regarding the potential impact of quantum computing on Bitcoin. Charles Edwards highlighted a substantial risk to Bitcoin’s cryptography, indicating that without a timely fix, the cryptocurrency could face severe consequences.

The Quantum Threat to Bitcoin

In a recent presentation at the Global Blockchain Show held in Abu Dhabi, Edwards discussed the implications of advancing quantum computing technology on Bitcoin. He has posited that there is a 34% chance that quantum advancements could compromise Bitcoin’s cryptography within the next three years. This estimation is based on analyses of seven different sources that provide timelines for potential breakthroughs in quantum computing.

Edwards has assigned a corresponding 34% discount to Bitcoin’s current valuation, suggesting that the potential risks associated with quantum computing are becoming increasingly relevant. He emphasized that the urgency for a fix is growing daily, pointing to the critical nature of the situation.

The concerns regarding quantum computing extend beyond immediate threats. If quantum computing were to successfully break Bitcoin’s cryptography, it could expose vulnerabilities in older wallets, potentially allowing previously dormant Bitcoin to re-enter circulation. A notable example of such dormant holdings includes the wallets attributed to Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, which hold a significant amount of Bitcoin that could negatively impact the market if released.

The Need for a Solution

Capriole has been vocal about the necessity for the Bitcoin community to develop and implement a solution to counter the quantum threat. However, consensus on the timing and nature of this solution has yet to be reached within the community. The uncertainty surrounding this issue raises further questions about Bitcoin’s future stability and security.

In contrast, Michael Saylor, the co-founder and chairman of Strategy, has expressed a different viewpoint. He believes that rather than breaking Bitcoin, quantum computing will ultimately strengthen it through network upgrades and the migration of active coins, while also indicating that lost coins will remain inaccessible.

From author

The warnings from Charles Edwards highlight a critical intersection between emerging technology and established financial systems. The potential risks posed by quantum computing to Bitcoin’s cryptography serve as a reminder of the vulnerabilities inherent in digital assets. As discussions continue within the crypto community, the need for proactive measures against these risks becomes ever more pressing.

Impact on the crypto market

• The acknowledgment of quantum risks may lead to increased caution among investors in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
• A potential influx of dormant Bitcoin into the market could trigger significant price volatility.
• Ongoing debates about the necessary solutions may create uncertainty, affecting market confidence.
• The divergence of opinions within the community regarding quantum computing’s impact could lead to fragmentation in strategies and approaches.
• If a consensus on a fix is not reached, the projected timeline for Bitcoin’s valuation could face downward pressure, potentially influencing broader market trends.