Analyst Points To $82,000 As Most Crucial Bitcoin Price Level — Here’s Why

Overview

The bearish trend of Bitcoin’s price has persisted into December, indicating that the cryptocurrency may finish the year negatively. Recent insights from on-chain data highlight the significance of the $82,000 price level as a critical point for Bitcoin’s future trajectory.

Active Market Participants’ Cost Basis at $82,000

Market analyst Burak Kesmeci shared an analysis emphasizing the importance of the $82,000 mark in a post on the X platform. This price level is identified as a pivotal convergence point for two significant cost bases in Bitcoin’s history.

Kesmeci noted that the average purchase cost of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is around $82,000. ETFs represent a substantial source of demand for Bitcoin, making this cost basis a valuable indicator of institutional market sentiment. Additionally, the Bitcoin True Market Mean metric, which tracks the acquisition cost of active investors—excluding mined or rarely-moved Bitcoin—also reflects that most active participants purchased their holdings near this price level.

What Happens If $82,000 Fails?

The analyst warned that if Bitcoin’s price falls below the $82,000 support level, it could trigger increased selling pressure. Typically, when the price slips beneath a significant support level, it leads to a conversion of buy-side liquidity into bearish momentum due to investors incurring losses.

Kesmeci highlighted that historical trends suggest that a decline below the active market participants’ cost basis often precedes further downward movement, potentially targeting Bitcoin’s Realized Price. Currently, the Realized Price is approximately $56,000, which is significantly lower than the average cost basis of active investors. This scenario raises concerns that a breach of the $82,000 level could lead to a sharp decline towards $56,000.

Impact on the Crypto Market

• The ongoing bearish sentiment could lead to a further decline in Bitcoin’s price as it approaches the critical $82,000 level.
• A failure to maintain support at $82,000 may trigger increased selling pressure from active investors.
• Historical patterns indicate that falling below key cost bases often results in a downward trend, raising concerns about reaching the Realized Price.
• Institutional demand, reflected through Bitcoin ETFs, may be impacted if the price continues to decline.
• The overall market sentiment could be influenced by the volatility surrounding Bitcoin’s price movements in relation to the $82,000 level.