Why Bitwise Thinks Bitcoin Still Hits $200,000 In 2026

Overview

Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise, recently reiterated the firm’s belief that Bitcoin is on track to reach $200,000 by 2026. He characterized the current market sell-off as a normal shakeout in a maturing market rather than a significant trend reversal.

Market Assessment

During his appearance on Yahoo Finance, Rasmussen provided insights into the current state of the Bitcoin market. He suggested that the market is closer to reaching a bottom than it has been in recent weeks, attributing the recent drawdown to risk-off conditions and the dynamics associated with exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He noted that Bitcoin has been a leader in the recent risk-off movement and anticipates it will lead the market upward once the conditions improve.

Rasmussen acknowledged that while the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs has resulted in deeper market liquidity, it has also introduced more volatility. He explained that the increased number of market participants, including hedge funds engaging in basis trades, contributes to this choppiness. Over time, he believes that the overall volatility will diminish, although it will not do so in a straight line.

Changes in Buyer Composition

Rasmussen highlighted a shift in the type of buyers entering the Bitcoin market. He noted that the current buyers tend to be more long-term oriented, including wealth managers and financial advisors who are incorporating Bitcoin into their model portfolios. This change in buyer composition is expected to reduce volatility and enhance long-term demand. However, he also pointed out that corporate treasury purchases, which were strong earlier in the year, have diminished due to the recent sell-off.

Future Outlook

Despite acknowledging the challenges posed by lower prices, Rasmussen maintained an optimistic medium-term outlook for Bitcoin. He described the current lower prices as both a gift and a curse, particularly for those who purchased Bitcoin at higher levels. He believes that the process of finding a short-term bottom is well underway and emphasized that institutional adoption of Bitcoin is gradually increasing.

Rasmussen cited early indicators of institutional interest, such as the participation of endowments in Bitcoin investments. He noted that Bitcoin’s performance is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors, including central bank policies, although he believes correlations with equities are returning to historical norms.

Impact on the Crypto Market

• The current sell-off is viewed as a normal part of market maturation rather than a trend reversal.
• Increased market liquidity from institutional investors may lead to more volatility in the short term.
• A shift towards long-term buyers could stabilize Bitcoin’s price over time.
• Corporate treasury buying has decreased, impacting overall demand.
• The forecast for Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by 2026 is based on expected institutional inflows creating a supply-demand imbalance.

Updated: 11/21/2025, 5:24:51 AM