Top Analyst Sounds Alarm: Bitcoin Is Highly Unlikely To Spring Back Anytime Soon
Overview
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a fragile trading state, having slipped below $90,000 and now residing in the mid-$80,000s. This decline has prompted analysts to consider the possibility of a delayed major rally, with significant insights coming from prominent crypto analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino.
Current Market Situation
According to Severino’s recent technical analysis, the 6-week LMACD momentum indicator has crossed bearish for the first time in years. This bearish crossover serves as a warning sign, indicating that Bitcoin is not positioned for a swift recovery that many traders may be anticipating. The downward momentum is underscored by the recent shift in the 6-week LMACD, which is a lagging indicator that confirms long-term trend changes.
Implications of the 6-Week LMACD
The 6-week LMACD is known for its decisive crossovers, which often indicate significant shifts in market trends. Severino emphasizes that this particular crossover is a lagging signal, meaning that by the time it turns bearish, Bitcoin is already entrenched in a downturn. Historical data reveals that Bitcoin has previously entered extended bearish phases lasting hundreds of days after similar crossovers, with significant declines observed during these periods.
Severino points out that bear-market lows typically emerge between 250 and 365 days following a bearish crossover. This suggests that traders expecting a swift bottom within a few weeks may be overlooking the historical behavior of this indicator. Additionally, past downturns have seen Bitcoin experience drawdowns of approximately 69% to 75% following the bearish crossover, indicating that the market often faces substantial losses before recovery begins.
Long-Term Outlook
While the current bearish crossover is still unconfirmed for another 15 days, Severino advises caution. He is not predicting the end of Bitcoin’s long-term potential; however, he urges traders to temper their expectations for quick gains. The 6-week LMACD is a high-timeframe signal that reflects deep structural trends rather than short-term fluctuations, suggesting that a true market bottom may still be several months away.
As of the latest information, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $85,670, reflecting declines of 11% over the past week and 23% over the past month. Severino’s analysis indicates that Bitcoin may remain at these levels for an extended period or could face further declines before any significant recovery into a new bull phase occurs.
Impact on the crypto market
- Bitcoin’s bearish momentum could lead to prolonged periods of price stagnation or additional declines.
- The 6-week LMACD’s historical context suggests that traders may need to prepare for a lengthy downturn.
- The market may see increased caution from traders and investors in the wake of this bearish indicator.
- Potential psychological effects on market sentiment could result in reduced trading activity and lower investor confidence.
- The current price action may influence the strategies of other cryptocurrencies as they react to Bitcoin’s performance.
Updated: 11/23/2025, 12:41:01 PM
