Solana at a Breaking Point: Fading Memecoin Hype and Alameda Unlocks Test the $140 Support Zone

Overview

Solana (SOL) is facing significant market challenges as a combination of diminishing memecoin activity, reduced user engagement, and ongoing token unlocks from Alameda Research exert pressure on its price. This situation raises concerns about Solana’s ability to maintain critical support levels.

Current Market Conditions

Declining User Engagement

Solana’s rapid rise in late 2024 and early 2025 was driven by a surge in memecoin launches and heightened retail speculation. However, this activity has sharply declined, leading to a drop in the number of daily active addresses to 3.3 million, a significant decrease from over 9 million at the beginning of the year. This marks a one-year low for user engagement on the platform.

The reduction in active addresses is primarily attributed to the exit of bots and short-term users who had previously increased network activity during the speculative peak. With diminished user engagement, Solana is experiencing lower fee revenue and reduced liquidity, making it more vulnerable to market fluctuations. Analysts caution that without the emergence of new high-utility applications—such as those geared toward payments, gaming, or real-world assets—Solana may continue to experience fluctuations in engagement tied to speculative trends.

Alameda Research Token Unlocks

Another factor contributing to Solana’s current challenges is the monthly token unlocks from the FTX/Alameda bankruptcy estate. Recently, Alameda unstaked a significant number of SOL tokens, which often leads to increased selling pressure as these tokens are frequently moved to exchanges. The vesting schedule for these unlocks extends through 2028, indicating that this selling pressure may persist over time.

Despite these challenges, institutional interest in Solana remains strong. The asset has seen a notable influx of funds through ETFs, with 10–11 consecutive days of inflows totaling $336 million for the week. Furthermore, prominent institutions such as Rothschild Investment and PNC Financial Services have disclosed new positions in Solana. Additionally, SoFi Bank’s decision to enable direct SOL purchases from U.S. checking accounts has further bolstered Solana’s legitimacy within the regulated financial sector.

Technical Analysis

Currently, SOL is trading within the range of $152–$156, having breached the key support level at $156 with increasing trading volume. The indicators suggest a bearish trend, as the On-Balance Volume (OBV) continues to decline, indicating ongoing seller dominance. The market structure has shown lower highs and lower lows since early November, and liquidity heatmaps indicate strong support zones at $144 and $140. Analysts regard the $140 level as crucial; a failure to maintain this support could lead to a deeper price correction.

Impact on the Crypto Market

• The decline in Solana’s user engagement may reflect broader trends in the memecoin market and speculative trading.
• Ongoing token unlocks from Alameda Research could create sustained selling pressure, impacting market sentiment.
• Strong institutional inflows through ETFs may counterbalance some of the selling pressure, indicating continued interest in Solana.
• The ability of Solana to maintain the $140 support level will be critical in determining its near-term price stability.
• The situation highlights the volatility inherent in crypto markets, driven by both speculative trading and institutional investment dynamics.

Updated: 11/13/2025, 8:27:16 PM