Ethereum Is 58% ‘Undervalued’ Based On Intrinsic Metrics, Says Hashed CEO
Overview
Ethereum is currently perceived to be trading significantly below its modeled intrinsic value, as indicated by a live valuation dashboard introduced by Hashed CEO Simon Kim. The dashboard, known as ETHval, provides a comprehensive analysis of Ethereum’s fair value based on various models.
Ethereum’s Valuation Insights
The ETHval dashboard reveals that Ethereum is priced at $3,034.0, while the reliability-weighted “Composite Fair Value” is calculated at $4,777.5. This suggests a potential upside of approximately 57.8% compared to the current market price. The median fair value across all models presented is $4,026.68, indicating a 33.8% increase above the present value.
The dashboard categorizes Ethereum as “UNDERVALUED” and consolidates its eight valuation models into five buy signals, one hold signal, and two sell signals.
Methodology Behind Fair Value Calculation
Simon Kim aims to provide a more grounded discussion surrounding Ethereum’s value by moving away from sentiment-driven narratives. He emphasizes the importance of understanding ETH’s intrinsic worth through analytical models. The ETHval tool openly displays these models and their respective outputs, along with reliability assessments.
The central panel of the dashboard features a breakdown of each valuation model:
- TVL Multiple Model: This model evaluates Ethereum based on total value locked in DeFi, assigning a fair value of $4,026.6, marking it as 32.7% undervalued with medium reliability.
- MC/TVL Fair Value Model: A conservative approach yielding a fair value of $3,453.1, classified as “fair,” indicating only a 13.8% increase above the current price with high reliability.
- DCF (Staking) Framework: This model, which discounts an ongoing stream of staking rewards, values Ethereum at $9,101.9, suggesting a significant undervaluation of 200.0%.
- Metcalfe’s Law Implementation: This high-reliability model estimates Ethereum’s value at $9,585.9, implying an even greater undervaluation of 216.8%.
- Ethereum L2 Ecosystem Model: This model produces a fair value of $4,640.0, indicating a 52.9% undervaluation, though it is marked as low reliability.
- Staking Scarcity Model: Based on liquid-supply contraction, this model suggests a value of $3,538.2, indicating a 16.6% undervaluation with low reliability.
Conversely, two income-style models provide opposing views while maintaining high reliability:
- P/E Ratio Model: This model assesses annualized protocol fees as earnings, arriving at a fair value of $957.4, suggesting Ethereum is 68.4% overvalued.
- Revenue Yield Model: This model estimates Ethereum’s price based on a target protocol yield of 2.5%, outputting a value of $1,531.8, indicating a 49.5% overvaluation.
To reconcile these varying signals, ETHval employs a weighting system where high-reliability models are multiplied by 9, medium by 5, and low by 2. This approach results in a composite value of $4,780.7, indicating a strong overall conclusion of Ethereum being undervalued, despite some models suggesting otherwise.
The dashboard clarifies that it does not provide investment recommendations, and the outputs are meant for reference only, based on debatable assumptions. By establishing Ethereum’s current price against a live fair-value spectrum ranging from $957.4 to $9,585.9, the ETHval dashboard quantifies a discussion that typically relies on anecdotal evidence.
Impact on the crypto market
- Ethereum is currently classified as “UNDERVALUED,” which could influence investor sentiment.
- The disparity between current pricing and the intrinsic value may attract new capital into Ethereum.
- The introduction of ETHval could lead to a more analytical approach to evaluating cryptocurrencies.
- Conflicting signals from various models may create uncertainty, prompting investors to conduct further research before making decisions.
- The dashboard’s emphasis on intrinsic value over speculative price movements may shift market dynamics in the long term.
Updated: 11/27/2025, 5:20:19 PM
