Crypto Traders See Bullish Tailwind: Hassett Jumps In Fed Chair Odds

Overview

Recent comments from Donald Trump regarding the Federal Reserve have shifted market perceptions, particularly influencing prediction markets in favor of Kevin Hassett as a potential successor to Jerome Powell. This development has implications for the crypto market, as traders anticipate changes in monetary policy that could favor risk assets.

What Happened

Donald Trump, in a press interaction, indicated that he has a candidate in mind to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair. He expressed a desire to see Powell replaced, suggesting that there are both “surprising” and “standard” names on his shortlist. This statement led to a rapid adjustment in prediction markets, with contracts on who will be nominated converging around Hassett, reflecting a significant increase in his perceived likelihood of being chosen.

Prediction markets on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi showed a notable shift, with Hassett’s odds rising into the mid-40s to high-40s percent range. Analysts observed that Hassett was distinguishing himself from other candidates, with increased trading activity suggesting he might soon surpass a 50% probability in these markets.

The commentary from market analysts emphasized the potential implications of Hassett’s nomination, noting that he is viewed as more dovish than Powell and more aligned with Trump’s preference for looser financial conditions. This perspective posits that a change in leadership at the Fed could serve as a bullish signal for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Impact on the Crypto Market

• The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett could signal a shift towards more accommodative monetary policy, which may benefit risk-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies.
• The current focus on the Fed chair nomination adds a new layer of macroeconomic factors influencing crypto traders’ strategies.
• Increased speculation around Hassett’s nomination may lead to heightened volatility in the crypto market as traders react to changing probability distributions.
• The politicization of the Fed and concerns over central bank independence may reinforce the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against political and institutional risks.
• As market participants anticipate a favorable monetary environment, the crypto market could see increased speculative flows, particularly into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Updated: 11/19/2025, 10:26:22 AM