Bitcoin STH-MVRV Rebounds From Local Low – Potential Recovery Toward $115K–$120K

Overview

Bitcoin has recently demonstrated signs of recovery after a challenging week characterized by selling pressure. The cryptocurrency has managed to reclaim important support levels, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment. However, the $110K resistance remains untested, leading to cautious optimism among traders.

Market Dynamics

Following a period of increased liquidations and bearish sentiment that saw Bitcoin dip below $100K, the market is beginning to stabilize. This downturn triggered panic among short-term traders, but current trends suggest a potential recovery. According to data from CryptoQuant, spot exchange outflows have risen, indicating that investors are moving Bitcoin into self-custody, reflecting a renewed holding behavior.

In the derivatives market, there is evidence of cooling open interest and reduced leverage. These conditions have historically been precursors to healthier and more sustainable uptrends, suggesting that the market may be positioning itself for a potential recovery.

Short-Term Holder MVRV Ratio

The Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV ratio has shown early signs of recovery after a significant correction last week. The metric reached a local low, which is often associated with short-term market bottoms. As of now, the STH MVRV has increased, indicating that selling pressure among short-term holders may be subsiding. This stabilization points to a possible shift from capitulation to recovery, as traders who purchased at higher prices begin to ease loss-taking behavior.

Historically, an upward trend in the STH MVRV ratio has preceded bullish impulses in the market. If this trend continues, it could signal a move toward higher price levels that have typically aligned with the $115K to $120K range.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin has shown early recovery signs after dropping below $100K, stabilizing around $105,000. The daily chart indicates a short-term bullish reaction following a bounce from the 200-day moving average, a critical support level that has historically marked the bottom of corrective phases. However, the broader trend remains cautious, with the 50-day and 100-day moving averages positioned above the current price, indicating weak momentum.

A decisive breakout above the $108K to $110K resistance zone is necessary to confirm a potential trend reversal and shift in sentiment. Conversely, falling below $100K could open the door for further downside risks.

Impact on the crypto market

• Bitcoin’s recovery signals potential stabilization after a period of significant selling pressure.
• Increased spot exchange outflows suggest a shift toward long-term holding behavior among investors.
• Cooling open interest in the derivatives market may indicate healthier market conditions ahead.
• The STH MVRV ratio’s upward trend suggests the possibility of a bullish impulse if it maintains above critical thresholds.
• Current technical indicators highlight the need for a breakout above key resistance levels to confirm a trend reversal.

Updated: 11/11/2025, 11:00:23 PM