Bitcoin’s New ‘Line In The Sand’ May Be $82,000, Not $56,000: Analyst
Overview
An analyst has proposed that Bitcoin’s bottom in the current cycle may not adhere to historical bear market patterns. Instead, it could stabilize around a new metric known as the True Mean Price, rather than the previously significant Realized Price level.
Analysis of Pricing Models
In a recent post on X, Alec Dejanovic, co-founder of Checkonchain, discussed two critical pricing models concerning Bitcoin. The first model is the Realized Price, which tracks the average cost basis of investors within the Bitcoin network. When the Bitcoin spot price exceeds this level, it indicates that the network is in a state of net unrealized profit. Conversely, when the price falls below this metric, it implies that the average Bitcoin holder is experiencing losses.
Historically, Bitcoin’s bear markets have typically bottomed out around the Realized Price level. This pattern was observed during previous bear markets in 2015, 2018, and 2022, as well as during the COVID crash in 2020. Dejanovic explained that when Bitcoin’s price is below the Realized Price, most of the network is considered “underwater,” meaning there are fewer profit-takers left. This situation often leads to a gradual exhaustion of selling pressure, allowing Bitcoin to recover.
Currently, the Realized Price is positioned at $56,000. Following historical trends, it might be assumed that Bitcoin’s bear market could find its bottom around or below this level. However, Dejanovic suggests that the market conditions could be different this time. He pointed out that with sustained ETF flows and no signs of significant fraud similar to the FTX collapse, the $56,000 target might be too conservative.
The True Mean Price
The second pricing model mentioned is the True Mean Price, which represents the cost basis of only active market participants, excluding those who hold Bitcoin in inaccessible wallets. As the Bitcoin supply ages, more coins become lost, rendering the Realized Price less reflective of the current market dynamics. By focusing solely on active participants, the True Mean Price provides a more accurate representation of the market’s situation.
According to Dejanovic, the True Mean Price is currently at $82,000, which coincides with Bitcoin’s recent low. He suggested that this level could be the new “line in the sand” for the cryptocurrency.
Impact on the crypto market
- The discussion around the new pricing models could influence investor sentiment and strategies.
- A potential shift to the True Mean Price as a reference point may alter how market participants assess Bitcoin’s value.
- If Bitcoin stabilizes around the True Mean Price, it could signal a new phase in market behavior and dynamics.
- The resilience of ETF flows may contribute to a more optimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s price movements.
- The recognition of lost Bitcoin supply may lead to a reevaluation of price expectations and market health.
Updated: 11/27/2025, 10:27:32 AM
