Bitcoin Price Correction Could Last Until Mid-2026 — Here’s How

Overview

The Bitcoin price has faced significant challenges in the final quarter of 2025, struggling to maintain momentum after losing a critical psychological level. As bearish pressure mounts, analysts are debating whether this downturn is part of the cryptocurrency’s inherent volatility or the onset of a more prolonged bear market.

Current State of Bitcoin Price

As of November 13, Bitcoin has experienced a dramatic decline, ending the year nearly at the same level it started. The loss of the $100,000 threshold has intensified concerns among investors and analysts alike. The prevailing theories suggest that Bitcoin’s current struggles could be indicative of a longer correction period, particularly if technical support levels are breached.

Factors Behind the Decline

In a recent post on the CryptoQuant platform, XWIN Research highlighted several key factors contributing to the current downturn in Bitcoin’s price:

• Decreased Expectations for Rate Cuts: A shift in the Federal Reserve’s outlook has diminished hopes for a December rate cut, contributing to the drop in Bitcoin’s value.

• Reversal of Capital Flows into ETFs: There has been a significant outflow of nearly $1.1 billion from spot exchange-traded funds, indicating a decline in institutional demand and overall market sentiment.

• Excessive Market Leverage: The unwinding of excessive leverage led to cascading liquidations, resulting in over $600 million in forced long closures within a short timeframe. This was compounded by rumors related to exchanges and incidents in decentralized finance (DeFi), pushing market sentiment into extreme fear.

Future Outlook for Bitcoin

Following the examination of the factors leading to Bitcoin’s price decline, XWIN Research proposed a theoretical timeline for the future of the cryptocurrency. The $92,000 to $94,000 range has been identified as a critical support zone; a breach of this area could lead to further declines, potentially down to approximately $85,000. However, the firm also noted that recent on-chain data presents a somewhat optimistic perspective. Notably, the cost basis for holders with a 6-to-12-month investment horizon is around $94,000, offering a structural support level.

Potential Catalysts for Recovery

XWIN Research suggested that several catalysts could facilitate a recovery for Bitcoin, with the most significant being improvements in macroeconomic conditions. A shift towards rate cuts or broader liquidity expansion in 2026 might attract capital back into risk assets.

Impact on the Crypto Market

• The loss of the $100,000 level signifies a critical psychological threshold for Bitcoin traders and investors.
• The significant outflows from ETFs reflect a decrease in institutional interest, which could influence overall market dynamics.
• The unwinding of leverage may increase market volatility and contribute to a bearish sentiment.
• The potential for a prolonged correction could affect investor confidence and trading strategies in the crypto space.
• Any shifts in macroeconomic conditions may play a crucial role in determining the future trajectory of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

Updated: 11/15/2025, 2:19:23 PM