Bitcoin Miners Face A Harsh December: Rising BTC Difficulty, Falling Hashprice
Overview
Bitcoin miners are facing significant challenges as they enter December. With rising mining difficulty and a declining hashprice, many operations are now grappling with thin profit margins. This situation poses critical decisions for miners regarding the viability of their operations.
Rising Difficulty and Its Implications
According to CoinWarz, the upcoming difficulty adjustment at block 927,360 will increase the target from 149 trillion to nearly 150 trillion. Although this adjustment is relatively modest, it is significant as miners are already operating with narrow profit margins. The strong hashpower in the network is sufficient to push the difficulty higher, even as returns remain close to record lows.
Hashprice and Break-Even Concerns
Data from Hashrate Index indicates that the hashprice currently hovers around $38.3 PH/s per day, slightly recovering from a low of below $35 PH/s recorded on November 21. Reports suggest that the break-even point for many mining operations is approximately $40 PH/s. As revenue per petahash drifts below this threshold, miners are confronted with a critical decision: whether to keep their rigs running or to shut them down as they approach December.
Hardware and Supply Chain Risks
Recent reports have highlighted a probe by the US Department of Homeland Security into Bitmain, the China-based manufacturer of ASIC machines. Concerns have arisen regarding the potential for remote access to these machines. Bitmain reportedly controls about 80% of the ASIC market, according to the University of Cambridge. This concentration presents vulnerabilities for the industry. Should US officials implement restrictions, tariffs, or other limitations, miners may face increased hardware costs and delays in equipment delivery. Such scenarios could significantly impact expansion plans within the mining sector.
Political Climate Surrounding Bitcoin Mining
In China, there has been a slight increase in bitcoin mining activity, prompting some scholars to suggest that Beijing should reconsider its ban to allow miners to utilize excess energy. However, experts remain skeptical about a formal reversal of this ban. Data from Hashrate Index shows that China’s share of the global hash rate has grown from 13.75% in the first quarter of 2025 to 14% in the current quarter, positioning it third behind the US and Russia. Historical data from the Cambridge index reveals that China’s hash rate plummeted to zero in July 2021 but rebounded to 22.29% by September 2021 due to unofficial activities. Despite this uptick, Beijing has tightened regulations on cryptocurrency, citing concerns over financial disruption and potential illegal activities, making a formal lift of the mining ban unlikely.
Impact on the Crypto Market
- Increased mining difficulty may lead to reduced profitability for miners.
- A declining hashprice could force some miners to shut down operations.
- Supply chain vulnerabilities could result in higher hardware costs and delayed deliveries.
- Political resistance in China may prevent a return to larger-scale bitcoin mining operations.
- Overall market sentiment may be affected by these operational challenges faced by miners.
Updated: 11/30/2025, 2:20:34 PM
