Analyst Shares Worst-Case Scenario For Bitcoin (BTC) As Price Shows Concerning Signs
Overview
Bitcoin’s recent performance has raised concerns among analysts, with indications that it may be entering a bear market. As the cryptocurrency continues to lose significant support levels, an analyst has outlined three potential scenarios for its future trajectory.
Recent Performance of Bitcoin
Bitcoin reached a new multi-month low, dropping below $93,000 for the first time since May. At the beginning of the week, it experienced a decline of nearly 5% from the $96,000 area and tested the $91,000 level as support. The cryptocurrency has faced a 16% correction since its opening in November, losing multiple crucial support levels over the past few weeks. Notably, it fell below the $100,000 psychological barrier and the 21-Week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as support. Recently, Bitcoin closed the week below the 50-week EMA, raising alarms for market observers.
Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that losing the 50-week EMA is concerning for maintaining a bullish market structure. Historically, bear markets are confirmed when the price loses key bullish levels that have previously supported upward momentum. Bitcoin has previously formed clusters of lower lows at the 50-week EMA, which helped sustain a broader bullish technical uptrend. However, it is now forming a cluster below this indicator, signaling the potential for a breakdown.
Potential Scenarios for Bitcoin
Rekt Capital outlined three possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s future performance:
-
Best-Case Scenario: Bitcoin successfully reclaims the 50-week EMA, ending the current correction as a downside deviation, indicating that it remains in a bull market.
-
Second-Best Case Scenario: Bitcoin experiences a multi-week hesitation period below the EMA as it transitions into a bear market. This may include a brief overextension above the EMA before a clearer downward trend is established.
-
Worst-Case Scenario: The price fails to retest the 50-week EMA, even as resistance, leading to an immediate downside acceleration phase. Although Rekt Capital noted that this scenario is historically less likely if a bear market has already begun, he indicated that the recurring “relief-rally scenario” into the 50-week EMA before further downside seems more probable.
Impact on the Crypto Market
- Bitcoin’s decline below key support levels raises concerns about a potential bear market.
- The loss of the 50-week EMA as a support level is a significant indicator for market observers.
- Analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the 50-week EMA to determine the future market trend.
- The outlined scenarios highlight the uncertainty in Bitcoin’s price movement and potential market reactions.
- Ongoing performance could influence investor sentiment and trading strategies within the broader cryptocurrency market.
Updated: 11/18/2025, 5:23:09 AM
